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偏差订正技术在冬奥会崇礼赛区复杂地形风速预报中的应用

Application of deviation correction technology in wind speed forecasting of complex terrain in Chongli competition area of Winter Olympics

  • 摘要: 为提高复杂地形下近地面风速预报效果,本文首先利用2022年北京冬奥会张家口崇礼赛区60个国家和区域气象观测站风场观测资料,采用统计偏差订正方法,针对2021年9月—2022年1月,获取1—12 h预报时效内风场背景场逐小时平均偏差。然后用逐小时平均偏差场对河北省气象局50 m分辨率融合分析与临近预报系统(INCA-50系统)背景场进行偏差订正,并使用订正后的背景场得到风场预报结果。最后通过风场综合对比和个例检验,验证偏差订正后精细化风场的预报效果。结果表明:(1) 偏差订正后风速相比INCA-50格点预报产品系统性偏差明显降低,12 h预报时效内风速绝对误差降低幅度最高达36%,站点平均绝对误差改善率达30%。(2) 个例应用检验结果表明,偏差订正方法可以有效弥补观测站点稀疏的不足,偏差订正后可有效改善INCA-50系统风速预报结果偏大的问题,预报风速与观测风速更接近。

     

    Abstract: To enhance the forecasting accuracy of near-surface wind speed under complex terrain conditions, this paper firstly utilizes wind field observation data from 60 national and regional meteorological observation stations in the Chongli Zone of Zhangjiakou for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, adopts the statistical deviation correction method to obtain the hourly average deviation of wind field background field within the forecast time limit of 1-12 h from September 2021 to January 2022. Then, the hourly average deviation field is used to correct the deviation of the Hebei Provincial Meteorological Bureau 50 m resolution fusion analysis and proximity forecasting system (INCA-50 system) background field, and obtain the wind field forecast results by using the corrected background field. Finally, the forecast effect of refined wind field after deviation correction is verified by comprehensive comparison of wind field and case test. The results are as follows. (1) Compared with INCA-50 grid forecast products, the systematic deviation of wind speed after deviation correction is obviously reduced, and the absolute error of wind speed is reduced by up to 36% within 12 h forecast time limit, and the improvement rate of average absolute error of stations is up to 30%. (2) The test results of an example show that, the deviation correction method can effectively make up for the shortage of sparse observation stations. After the deviation correction, the problem that the wind speed prediction result of INCA-50 system is too large can be effectively improved, and the predicted wind speed is closer to the observed wind speed.

     

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