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湖南夏季降水的日变化特征及形成原因分析

Analysis of diurnal variation characteristics and formation causes of summer precipitation in Hunan

  • 摘要: 使用湖南65个国家气象站1971—2023年夏季(6—8月)逐小时降水资料及欧洲中期天气预报发布的全球最新一代再分析数据(the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis,ERA5),采用K均值聚类算法,研究了湖南夏季平均降水量、日最大降水量、降水频率的空间分布特征以及湖南夏季平均小时降水量、降水频率和降水强度的日变化特征和形成原因。结果表明:(1) 湖南夏季平均降水量和日最大降水量整体表现为南北多、中间少的特点,夏季降水频率表现为湘南和湘西北地区较高,湘中和湘东北地区较低,夏季日降水强度分布则表现为北强南弱。(2) 湖南夏季平均小时降水量、降水频率和降水强度日变化均为双峰型,主峰值出现在16时(北京时,下同)左右,次峰值出现在00时左右。(3) 持续1~6 h的累计降水量对00时的降水量峰值贡献较大,而持续6 h以上的长时间降水的累计降水量对16时的降水量峰值贡献较大。(4) 采用K均值聚类算法将65个站分类为3个区域;区域1 (以下简称R1)和区域2 (以下简称R2)夏季平均小时降水量、降水频率和降水强度日变化曲线呈双峰型,但R1最大峰值出现在凌晨,R2出现在下午;区域3 (以下简称R3)夏季平均小时降水量、降水频率为弱的双峰型,主峰值出现在下午。(5) 通过热力、动力和水汽条件,初步分析了R1、R2和R3区降水高峰的形成原因。R1区出现在午夜的降水峰值可能是因为动力强迫引起,凌晨南风加强,低层上升运动达到最强,从南方输入的水汽通量也达到最大值,同时有水汽通量辐合,有利于降水的产生。R2和R3区出现在下午的降水峰值可能由局地热力不稳定触发,由于午后地表加热,大气稳定性弱,有利于对流降水发展。

     

    Abstract: Using hourly precipitation data from 65 national level ground meteorological stations in Hunan and the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis data (ERA5) during the summer seasons (June to August) of 1971 to 2023, and employing the K-means clustering algorithm, this study investigated the spatial distribution characteristics of average summer precipitation, daily maximum precipitation, and precipitation frequency, as well as the diurnal variation characteristics and the formation cause of average hourly precipitation, precipitation frequency, and precipitation intensity during the summer seasons in Hunan. The results are as follows. (1) The average summer precipitation and maximum daily precipitation in Hunan generally show a pattern of more in the north and south, and less in the central region. The frequency of average summer precipitation is higher in southern and northwestern Hunan, lower in central and northeastern Hunan. The distribution of summer precipitation intensity is stronger in the north and weaker in the south. (2) The daily variations of average summer hourly precipitation, precipitation frequency, and precipitation intensity in Hunan during summer are bimodal, with the main peak appearing around 16:00 (Beijing Time, same below) and the secondary peak appearing around 00:00. (3) The total precipitation of events persisting 1~6 hours contribute more significantly to the precipitation peak at 00:00, while the total precipitation of long-duration events persisting over 6 hours are associated with greater contributions to the peak at 16:00. (4) Using the K-means clustering algorithm, 65 stations were classified into 3 regions. The daily variation curves of average summer hourly precipitation, precipitation frequency and precipitation intensity in Region 1 (R1) and Region 2 (R2) show a bimodal pattern, with the main peak of R1 appearing in the early morning and R2 appearing in the afternoon. Region 3 (R3) has a weak bimodal pattern of average summer hourly precipitation and frequency, with the main peak appearing in the afternoon. (5) The formation causes of precipitation peak formation in R1, R2, and R3 regions were preliminarily investigated through thermal, dynamic, and water vapor condition analysis. The peak precipitation in R1 area at midnight may be caused by dynamic forcing. In the early morning, the south wind strengthens, and the strongest low-level upward movement occurs. The water vapor flux input from the south also reaches its maximum value, and there is convergence of water vapor flux, which is conducive to the generation of precipitation. The peak precipitation in R2 and R3 regions in the afternoon may be triggered by local thermal instability. Due to surface heating in the afternoon, atmospheric stability is weak, which favors the development of convective precipitation.

     

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