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秋汛期汉江上游致洪暴雨天气概念模型客观识别及应用

Objective identification and application of the conceptual weather model of flood-causing rainstorm in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River in autumn flood season

  • 摘要: 为解决单一天气系统识别算法不能实现对致洪暴雨天气过程准确判定的问题,以2000年以来发生在汉江上游秋汛期致洪暴雨天气过程为研究对象,应用曲率值追踪算法、领域查找法等主流客观识别算法,设计了能同时识别多种天气系统的客观算法,并基于致洪暴雨天气概念模型,进一步构建了可用于计算机客观识别的匹配算法,从而实现对致洪暴雨天气概念模型的客观识别。对汉江上游的15例大洪水事件中27次致洪暴雨过程进行历史个例回代试验。结果表明,算法对大尺度天气系统的位置、强度、移动路径等方面的客观识别都较为准确,命中率都在90%以上。在进行致洪暴雨天气概念模型客观识别试验时,效果良好,命中率都在70%以上。客观识别算法基于MICAPS格点数据便可实现,不仅能够快速识别汉江上游秋汛期的致洪暴雨天气概念模型,还具备较强的移植性,在其他流域洪水预报业务中也具有较好的应用前景。

     

    Abstract: A single identification algorithm usually cannot accurately identify the flood-causing rainstorm weather system. To solve the problem this paper studies the flood-causing rainstorm weather process in the upper reaches of the Han River in the autumn flood season since 2000. Combining the curvature value tracking algorithm, domain search method and other mainstream objective identification algorithms, we design an objective identification algorithm that can simultaneously identify multiple weather systems, and builds a digital model that can be used for computer identification based on the flood-causing rainstorm weather conceptual model. By doing so, we realize the objective identification of the flood-causing rainstorm weather conceptual model. A historical case study of the flood-causing rainstorm processes of 15 major flood events in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River was carried out. The results show that the algorithm is relatively accurate in the objective identification of the location, intensity, moving path and other aspects of large-scale weather systems, and the hit rate is more than 90%. When conducting the objective identification test of the flood-causing rainstorm weather concept model, the hit rate is more than 70%. The objective recognition algorithm of weather conceptual model can be applied to the MICAPS grid data. It can not only quickly identify the flood-causing rainstorm weather pattern in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River in the autumn flood season, but also can be applied to flood forecasting operations in other basins.

     

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