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贵州冬季一次锋面降水过程成因及预报偏差探讨

Discussion on the causes and forecast deviation of a frontal precipitation process in winter in Guizhou

  • 摘要: 2024年2月3日贵州出现了一次冬季少见的冻雨、雪、冰雹和暴雨同时出现的复杂降水相态天气过程。利用气象常规观测、风云4A卫星云图、多普勒天气雷达、欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代大气再分析以及中国气象局全球同化预报系统模式资料,采用天气分析和物理量诊断方法对本次降水过程锋生作用和不稳定机制进行研究,并分析了模式预报误差。 结果发现:(1)本次天气过程为南支槽前西南气流发展、冷暖空气均持续加强、云贵静止锋锋生共同作用而形成的锋面降水天气,中尺度降水带横跨云贵静止锋,降水带西段发展快速和剧烈,降水回波具有积状云回波特征,出现了冰雹和短时强降水等强对流天气;降水带东段降水强度较弱,降水回波具有层积混合回波特征,回波顶伸展较高并有冰晶层发展,出现了雨雪相态的转换。(2)降水带西段贵州西南部地区处于静止锋前暖气团中,午后快速增温增湿,条件性静力不稳定发展,导致垂直对流的生成发展。模式对大气近地层至低层温湿条件的预报误差使得静力不稳定预报弱于实况,是造成贵州西南部冰雹天气漏报的重要因素。(3)降水带东段贵州东北部处于静止锋后,温度垂直分布呈现三层结构,受冷空气增强影响,大气整层温度下降,融化层减弱,冷层和冰晶层发展加强,静止锋锋生出现条件对称不稳定,沿锋面倾斜上升运动发展,降水由雨转雪。(4)模式预报的有利温湿条件转换与实况较一致,但后期持续时间短于实况,是造成贵州东北部降雪预报偏少的主要原因。

     

    Abstract: On February 3,2024, a complex phase precipitation process with rare freezing rain, snow, hail and rainstorm in winter occurred in Guizhou. Based on the conventional meteorological observation data, FY-4A satellite cloud image, doppler weather radar data, the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the global assimilation forecast system model data from the China Meteorological Administration,the frontogenesis and instability mechanism of this precipitation process were studied by weather analysis and physical quantity diagnosis, and the model forecast error was analyzed.The results show that: (1)This weather process is a frontal precipitation weather formed by the development of southwest airflow in front of the south branch trough, the continuous strengthening of cold and warm air, and the interaction of Yunnan-Guizhou stationary frontogenesis. The mesoscale precipitation belt crosses the Yunnan-Guizhou stationary front, and the western section of the precipitation belt develops rapidly and violently. The precipitation echo has the characteristics of cumulus cloud echo, resulting in strong convective weather of hail and short-term heavy precipitation. In the eastern section of the precipitation belt, the weather is more stable and the precipitation intensity is weaker. The precipitation echo has the characteristics of stratified mixed echo, and the echo top extends higher with the development of ice crystal layer, resulting in the transformation of rain and snow phase. (2)The southwestern Guizhou in the western part of the precipitation belt is in the warm air mass in front of the stationary front. The rapid warming and humidification in the afternoon and the conditional static instability lead to the formation and development of vertical convection. The forecast error of the numerical weather model on the temperature and humidity conditions from the near surface to the lower layer of the atmosphere makes the static instability forecast weaker than the actual situation, which is an important factor causing the underreporting of hail weather in southwestern Guizhou. (3)The northeastern part of Guizhou in the eastern section of the precipitation belt is behind the stationary front, and the vertical distribution of temperature presents a three-layer model. Affected by the enhancement of cold air, the temperature of the whole atmosphere decreases, the melting layer weakens, the development of the cold layer and the ice crystal layer strengthens, the stationary front is generated, the condition symmetry is unstable, and the upward movement along the frontal zone is developed, and the precipitation changes from rain to snow. (4)The favorable temperature and humidity condition conversion of the model forecast is consistent with the actual situation, but the later duration is shorter than the actual situation, which is the main reason for the less snowfall forecast in northeast Guizhou.

     

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