高级搜索

ECMWF降水相态诊断产品(PTYPE)偏差分析及改进

The deviation analysis and improvement of the ECMWF precipitation type forecast product (PTYPE)

  • 摘要: 为改进数值模式降水相态诊断方案,改善业务降水相态预报结果,基于高空和地面观测实况、ERA5再分析资料的降水相态诊断产品(precipitation type,PTYPE)以及高空和地面的气温、露点温度数据,对比2022年和2023年冬季我国北方、西南和江南3个区域不同降水相态天气的诊断探空和实况探空差异,结合统计概念模型和降水相态物理过程对PTYPE预报偏差的成因进行了分析,并提出改进方法。结果表明:(1)在北方和江南地区,如将PTYPE的干湿雪统归为降雪,其与实测降雪数据更为吻合。在西南地区,PTYPE的降雪较实况偏多,可用性明显低于其他地区;(2)当前PTYPE对冻雨的诊断方案,与冻雨形成的基本物理过程不符,未充分考量液滴的“过冷”属性,这可能是PTYPE“空报”冻雨的主要原因;(3)PTYPE诊断冰粒时要求2 m气温低于0 ℃,而实况的2 m气温高于0℃,这是导致PTYPE对冰粒存在较多漏判的主要原因;此外,诊断方案中只要求到达地面附近的水成物中,固态比例≥50%,而非绝大部分保持固态甚或完全冻结,这会导致冰粒预报偏多;(4)基于综合对比分析,得到了改进的PTYPE产品的诊断方案,即采用2 m湿球温度作为雨夹雪和降雪的辅助判据,增加近地面液滴的温度作为冻雨的判据,在冰粒方案中剔除2 m气温的影响,并适当降低“地面液态水含量”的阈值,可望提升这些降水相态的诊断准确率。

     

    Abstract: In order to correct the diagnostic scheme and improve the forecast of precipitation type in numerical models, based on upper layer and surface observational data, combining with ERA5 precipitation type diagnosis products (PTYPE) and temperature and dew point of different pressure levels and surface, the PTYPE diagnostic and observational sounding data for different precipitation types in the northern, southwestern and Jiangnan area of China from the winter of 2022 to 2023 are compared in order to analyze the causes of forecast deviations in the PTYPE products from the aspects of statistical conceptual models and physical processes, then the improvements are proposed. The results show that (1) the sum of dry and wet snow incidents recognized by PTYPE is nearly equal to the number of observational snow events in the northern and Jiangnan area. However, in the southwestern area, the model diagnosis tends to overestimate the number of snowfall and sleet events, which means the PTYPE product is noticeably less reliable in this area. (2) The PTYPE diagnostic scheme is not consistent with the fundamental physical process of freezing rain formation, overlooking the droplets' supercooled characteristics, which could be the primary reason for the “false alarm” of the freezing rain in the PTYPE product. (3) For ice pellets, the PTYPE scheme requires that surface temperature is less than 0 °C, which is opposite to the observation. This is the main reason for the miss alarm of ice pellets. Additionally, the diagnostic scheme only requires that the solid percent of the water-phase particles near the surface is majority (≥50%), rather than the most even the all, which leads to “false alarm”. (4) Base on comprehensive analysis, the better PTYPE diagnosis plan is listed: the surface wet-bulb temperature is added as a criterion for sleet and snow; near-surface droplet temperature is added for freezing rain; the surface temperature is removed and the threshold of "near-surface liquid water content" is appropriately lowering for ice pellets, which may improve the accuracy of these precipitation types.

     

/

返回文章
返回