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台站迁移对湖北省气温序列非均一性影响的评估和订正

Assessing and correcting the impact of station relocation on temperature inhomogeneity in Hubei Province

  • 摘要: 长时间序列的气温资料是气候研究的基础,台站迁移是影响气温序列均一性的主要原因之一,快速城市化背景下台站迁移不断增多,因此定量评估台站迁移对气温序列非均一性影响并进行订正对提高资料应用质量至关重要。本文基于湖北省78个国家级气象观测站1960—2024年的气温观测数据和历史沿革信息,综合利用标准正态均一性检验、多元线性回归、惩罚最大T检验方法及跳变量分析,将台站迁移对气温序列非均一性的影响划分无影响、一般影响和较大影响三个等级,从年代际变化、海拔变化及水平位移等维度,定量评估台站迁移对湖北省气温序列非均一性的影响,并对武汉、五峰等典型台站开展了气温非均一性订正研究。结果表明:(1) 台站迁移对气温序列非均一性影响呈年代际放大特征,1990年代后平均气温非均一性事件发生频率显著增加(1990年代后为1990年代前的1.9倍)、影响程度明显增强,“较大影响”占比从11%升至63%,最低气温对台站迁移的敏感性更为明显。(2) 台站迁移的海拔高度变化对气温序列的非均一性影响强于水平位移,海拔高度变幅增大对最高气温序列非均一性影响更为显著。(3) 经分位数匹配法(QM)订正后,迁移台站与参考站气温区域一致性显著提升,其年际趋势与中国区域气温变化趋势更为接近。

     

    Abstract: Under rapid urbanization, the increasing frequency of meteorological station relocation necessitates quantitative evaluation of temperature series inhomogeneity. This study systematically analyzes 137 relocation records from 78 national meteorological observation stations in Hubei Province from 1960 to 2024. An integrated methodology is used, combining the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Penalized Maximum T Test (PMT), and jump-variable analysis. The results are as follows. (1) The intensity of inhomogeneity caused by relocations exhibits decadal amplification, with post-1990 events showing a 1.9-fold increase in inhomogeneity frequency compared to earlier periods. The occurrence of large-impact cases rose from 11% to 63%, with minimum temperature demonstrating greater sensitivity to relocations. (2) Altitude differences exerted stronger influences on temperature series than horizontal displacements, with larger elevation variations increasingly affecting the maximum temperature series. (3) After adjustment using the Quantile Mapping (QM) method, the regional consistency between relocated stations (Wuhan and Wufeng) and neighboring reference stations significantly improved, and interannual trends aligned more closely with temperature variation patterns of China.

     

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