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台站迁移对湖北省气温序列均一性影响评估和订正方法研究

Assessment and correction of the impact of station relocation on temperature homogeneity in Hubei Province

  • 摘要: 长序列气温资料是气候研究的基础,台站迁移是影响气温序列均一性的主要原因之一,快速城市化背景下台站迁移不断增多,定量评估台站迁移对气温均一性的影响并进行订正对提高资料应用质量至关重要。本文基于湖北省78个国家级气象观测站1960—2024年的气温观测数据和历史沿革信息,综合应用标准正态均一性检验、多元线性回归、惩罚最大T检验方法及跳变量分析,从年代际变化、海拔变化及水平位移等维度,定量评估了台站迁移对湖北省气温序列均一性的影响,并采用分位数匹配法对武汉、五峰等典型台站开展了气温非均一性订正试验。结果表明:(1) 台站迁移对气温均一性影响呈年代际放大特征,1990年代后平均气温非均一性事件发生频率显著增加(1990年代后为1990年代前的1.9倍)、影响程度明显增强,“较大影响”占比从11%升至63%,最低气温对台站迁移的敏感性更为明显。(2) 台站迁移的海拔高度变化对气温序列均一性的影响强于水平位移,海拔高度变幅增大对最高气温序列非均一性影响更为显著。(3) 经分位数匹配法(QM)订正后,迁移台站与周边参考站气温的区域一致性显著提升,其年际趋势与中国区域气温变化趋势更为接近。

     

    Abstract: Under rapid urbanization, the increasing frequency of meteorological station relocation necessitates quantitative evaluation of temperature series inhomogeneity. This study systematically analyzes 137 relocation records from 78 national meteorological observation tations in Hubei Province (1960-2024) using an integrated methodology combining the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Penalized Maximum T Test (PMT), and jump-variable analysis. The results are as follows. (1) The intensity of inhomogeneity caused by relocations exhibits decadal amplification, with post-1990 events showing a 1.9-fold increase in inhomogeneity frequency compared to earlier periods. The occurrence of large-impact cases rose from 11% to 63%, with minimum temperature demonstrating greater sensitivity to relocations. (2) Altitude differences exerted stronger influences on temperature series than horizontal displacements, with larger elevation variations increasingly affecting maximum temperature sequences. (3) After Quantile Mapping (QM) adjustment, regional consistency between relocated stations (Wuhan and Wufeng) and neighboring reference stations significantly improved, and interannual trends aligned more closely with China’s temperature variation patterns.

     

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