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湖北省高速公路暴雨致灾风险评估与区划

Risk assessment and zonation of rainstorm-induced disasters on expressways in Hubei Province

  • 摘要: 暴雨致灾风险区划有利于将被动应对灾害转为主动防控,为高速公路水毁灾害防御提供技术支撑。基于湖北省高速公路沿线2003—2024年81个国家级气象观测站及2017—2024年202个省级气象观测站逐时降水资料、2016—2024年湖北省高速公路沿线水毁信息以及数字高程DEM、坡度、坡向、地层岩性等多源资料,首先分析了湖北省高速公路水毁灾害分布特征,然后选取暴雨致灾危险性和孕灾环境敏感性指标因子,利用层次分析法确定各指标因子权重,构建湖北省高速公路暴雨致灾风险评估模型并开展综合风险区划,最后,利用水毁灾情实况对区划结果进行检验。结果表明:(1)湖北省高速公路水毁灾害主要分布在鄂西南、鄂东南、鄂西北和鄂东北地区,江汉平原高速公路较少出现水毁灾害;鄂东南和鄂东北地区水毁以积水为主,占比56.5%;鄂西南和鄂西北地区水毁以滑坡为主,占比61.7%;(2)湖北省高速公路暴雨致灾风险呈东部和西南部高、北部和中部低的分布特征,高风险区位于东部的咸宁、天门、仙桃及西南部的恩施、宜昌境内高速公路,鄂西北、武汉市骨干道路、荆门市和黄冈市南部高速公路为低危险区。(3)根据2016—2024年湖北省高速公路沿线108个水毁信息对区划结果进行验证,鄂东南、鄂西南以及鄂东北部分地区次低及以上等级的灾害发生占比为71.3%,区划结果具有较好的指示作用。

     

    Abstract: Rainstorm-induced disaster risk zonation facilitates the shift from passive disaster response to proactive prevention and provides technical support for the defense against highway water-related damages. Based on hourly precipitation data from 81 national-level meteorological observation stations (2003–2024) and 202 provincial-level meteorological observation stations (2017–2024) along highways in Hubei Province, water damage information, and digital elevation model (DEM), slope, aspect, and lithology, this study first analyzed the distribution characteristics of water damage disasters on the expressways in Hubei Province. Then, indicator factors for rainstorm-induced hazard risk and disaster-pregnant environment sensitivity were selected, determined the weight of each indicator using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), constructed a rainstorm-induced disaster risk assessment model for expressways in Hubei Province and conduct comprehensive risk zonation. Finally, the zoning results were verified using the actual water damage disaster situation. The results show that: (1) Water-related for expressways damages in Hubei Province are mainly distributed in the southwestern, southeastern, northwestern, and northeastern regions, while the Jianghan Plain experiences fewer highway water-related damages. In the southeastern and northeastern regions, waterlogging dominates, accounting for 56.5%, whereas in the southwestern and northwestern regions, landslides are the primary form of damage, accounting for 61.7%. (2) The rainstorm-induced hazard of expressways in Hubei Province is characterized by high levels in the east and southwest, and low levels in the north and central regions. High-hazard areas are located on highways in Xianning, Tianmen, Xiantao (eastern Hubei) and Enshi, Yichang (southwestern Hubei), while low-hazard areas include northwestern Hubei, trunk roads in Wuhan, Jingmen and southern Huanggang. (3) The zoning results were validated using 108 rainstorm-induced disaster cases from water damage disasters along expressways in Hubei Province (2016-2024). The analysis revealed that areas classified as sub-low risk or higher in southeastern, southwestern, and parts of northeastern Hubei accounted for 71.3% of disaster occurrences, the zoning results have a relatively good indicative effect..

     

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