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定量风速估算方法在2025年贵州“5.04”下击暴流过程中的适用性分析

Applicability of quantitative wind speed estimation method during the downburst event in Guizhou on May 4, 2025

  • 摘要: 目前国内基于天气雷达的下击暴流识别预警算法尚不能有效估算其强度和风速,中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所最新研发了基于双偏振天气雷达水凝物分类产品估算雷暴大风极端风速(Method for estimating the extreme wind speed of thunderstorm gales based on dual-polarization weather radar hydrometeors classification products,EESonHC)方法。针对2025年5月4日贵州地区出现的下击暴流过程(以下简称“5.04”下击暴流过程中),利用探空气象数据、地面自动站观测资料以及贵阳双偏振天气雷达产品,对EESonHC方法在贵州西南山区超级单体风暴中的应用效果和影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:EESonHC方法可以准确估算出贵阳附近超级单体风暴产生地面大风的时间演变特征,提前10 min估算出略高于地面实测风速的极端风速;能有效区分贵州“5.04”下击暴流过程中的两个单体风暴哪个会产生25 m·s−1以上的下击暴流风速;因贵州山区0.5°仰角雷达资料受地形阻挡影响严重,使用1.5°仰角雷达资料估算的极端风速更准确;EESonHC方法中的风暴单体区域内垂直加速度阈值设定与雨滴谱特征有关,但基于华北、江淮区域个例设定的阈值仍然适用于贵州地区。可见,EESonHC方法不仅适用于华北、江淮等平原区域,也适用于贵州西南山区;不仅适用于多单体风暴,也适用于超级单体风暴。

     

    Abstract: Currently, downburst identification and warning algorithms based on weather radar in China cannot effectively estimate the intensity and wind speed of downbursts. The Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, has newly developed a method for estimating the extreme wind speed of thunderstorm gales based on dual-polarization weather radar hydrometeor classification products (Extreme wind speed Estimation method based on Hydrometeor Classification products from dual-polarization weather radar, EESonHC). Focusing on the downburst event that occurred in Guizhou on May 4, 2025 (hereinafter referred to as the "5.04" downburst event), this study utilized sounding meteorological data, ground automatic weather station observations, and Guiyang dual-polarization weather radar products to analyze the application effectiveness and influencing factors of the EESonHC method in supercell storms over the southwestern Guizhou mountainous areas. The results are as follows. the EESonHC method accurately captured the temporal evolution characteristics of surface winds generated by the supercell storm near Guiyang, estimating extreme wind speeds slightly higher than surface observations with a 10-minute lead time; it effectively distinguished which of the two storm cells during the Guizhou "5.04" event produced downburst wind speeds exceeding 25 m·s1; due to severe terrain blockage affecting the 0.5° elevation radar data in Guizhou's mountainous areas, extreme wind speeds estimated using 1.5° elevation radar data were more accurate; the vertical acceleration threshold within the storm cell region in the EESonHC method is related to raindrop size distribution characteristics; however, thresholds established based on case studies from North China and the Jianghuai regions remain applicable to Guizhou. This demonstrates that the EESonHC method is not only suitable for plain regions such as North China and the Jianghuai regions, but also for mountainous regions of Southwest China; it is applicable not only to multicell storms but also to supercell storms.

     

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