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基于GIS空间分析的广西多要素气象观测站网布局评估

Assessment of multi-element meteorological observation network layout in Guangxi based on GIS spatial analysis

  • 摘要: 气象观测是精准预报预警和防灾减灾的基础,科学、系统性的观测站网评估对优化气象站网布局具有重要意义。本文利用地面多要素观测站、天气雷达站信息,基于GIS泰森多边形法、滚动需求评估原则及天气雷达组网覆盖评估算法,对2015和2025年广西地面观测站网的站点控制面积、水平分辨率和网格覆盖率以及天气雷达组网覆盖能力进行评估。结果表明:(1)2025年广西地面观测站点的控制面积和与最邻近站点的平均站间距较2015年明显减小,各观测要素水平分辨率均能够达到世界气象组织观测系统能力分析和审查工具(Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool,OSCAR)门限值指标,然而距离突破值指标仍然有较大的差距;(2)使用OSCAR高分辨率数值预报门限值指标对广西的地面观测站网进行网格分割时,站点的分布已覆盖大部分网格地区,在大城市及沿海地区站点分布较为密集;而使用突破值指标进行网格分割时,仍然存在较多的空白区;(3)2025年广西天气雷达等射束拼图组网在0.5 km、1 km、2 km高度的覆盖率较2015年显著提升,分别达36.90%、80.64%、96.88%,受复杂地形影响,0.5 km高度仍存在较多盲区,桂南覆盖优于桂北,2 km高度北纬23°以南基本实现全覆盖,因此雷达组网在桂南定量降水估测中可靠性较高。但桂林、百色、河池等桂北地区仍存在部分探测空白,高海拔区域仍需优化布局以提升监测能力。评估结果有效识别了广西气象监测盲区,可为广西优化站网布局、填补雷达探测空白及提升区域防灾减灾决策能力提供关键支撑。

     

    Abstract: Meteorological observation provides the basis for accurate forecasting and disaster prevention, where scientific and systematic evaluation methods of observation networks are essential for optimizing their spatial layout. Using ground multi-element observation stations and weather radar station information, based on GIS Thiessen polygon method, rolling demand assessment principle, and weather radar network coverage evaluation algorithm, to evaluate the station control area, horizontal resolution, grid coverage, and weather radar network coverage capability of Guangxi's ground observation station network in 2015 and 2025.The result show that: (1) In 2025, both the control area of surface observation stations in Guangxi and their average spacing to the nearest neighboring station showed a significant decrease compared to 2015. The horizontal resolution of all observed meteorological elements meets the corresponding threshold values set by the World Meteorological Organization's Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool (OSCAR), though a considerable gap remains from achieving its breakthrough targets. (2) Applying the WMO OSCAR high-resolution numerical forecast threshold criteria for grid-based assessment of Guangxi's surface observation network, station distribution demonstrates adequate coverage across most grid cells, with particularly dense clustering in metropolitan and coastal zones. However, significant spatial gaps persist when evaluated against the more stringent OSCAR breakthrough targets.(3) The coverage rate of Guangxi's weather radar mosaic network at 0.5km, 1km and 2km altitude levels demonstrated marked enhancement in 2025 compared to 2015 levels., reaching 36.90%, 80.64%, and 96.88% respectively. Due to the influence of complex terrain, there are still many blind spots at a height of 0.5km. The coverage in southern Guangxi is better than that in northern, and full coverage is basically achieved at a height of 2km south of latitude 23°N. Therefore, the reliability of radar networking in quantitative precipitation estimation in southern Guangxi is relatively high. However, there are still some detection gaps in northern Guangxi regions such as Guilin, Baise, and Hechi, and the layout of high-altitude areas still needs to be optimized to enhance monitoring capabilities. The evaluation results effectively identified blind spots in meteorological monitoring in Guangxi, providing key support for optimizing station network layout, filling radar detection gaps, and enhancing regional disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making capabilities.

     

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