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庐山暖季对流活动特征分析

Characteristics of warm-season convective activity over Lushan, China

  • 摘要: 为揭示庐山地区暖季对流的活动特征,提高庐山地区对流天气精细化预报预警能力,利用2018—2022年4—9月南昌多普勒天气雷达资料,结合地面观测、中国气象局陆面数据同化系统(CLDAS)湖面气温网格化产品和ERA5再分析资料,采用基于巴恩斯滤波与交叉相关跟踪雷达回波(Barnes filter and Tracking Radar Echoes by Cross-correlation,BTREC) 算法分析庐山地区对流时空演变、移动特征,并分析了庐山-鄱阳湖耦合作用对对流演变的影响。结果表明:庐山及东侧对流的频率和强度显著高于同纬度邻近区域, 5—7月频率较高(7月峰值),7—9月强度较强(8月峰值),7月兼具高频率与较强强度;日变化上12—16时(北京时,下同)为高发时段且强度最强,夜间频次和强度均较弱。超过80%的对流呈西南—东北向移动,4—6月移动较快、风向集中,7—9月速度减慢、风向角离散度增大。庐山—鄱阳湖通过动力(低空辐合带触发)和热力(湖陆/山谷风环流)耦合,驱动对流时空分布发生改变。据此, 12—16时是庐山强对流预警关键时段,西南—东北向为对流影响范围预判核心依据。

     

    Abstract: To reveal the characteristic laws of convective activities in the Lushan area during the warm season and improve the refined forecast and early warning capabilities for convective weather in this region, we used Nanchang Doppler weather radar data from April to September during 2018–2022, combined with surface observation data, gridded lake surface air temperature products from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) and the ERA5 reanalysis data. A method based on the Barnes filter and Tracking Radar Echoes by Cross-correlation (BTREC) algorithm was adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution, movement characteristics of convection during the warm season (April–September) in the Lushan area, as well as the impact of the coupling effect on convective evolution between Lushan Mountain and Poyang Lake. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of convection over Lushan and its eastern side were significantly higher than those in adjacent regions at the same latitude. Seasonally, convection frequency was relatively high from May to July (peaking in July), while intensity was stronger from July to September (peaking in August), with July featuring both high frequency and considerable intensity. Diurnally, the high-incidence period was 12:00–16:00 (Beijing Time, hereafter the same), during which convection intensity was optimal, whereas both frequency and intensity were weak at night. More than 80% of convection moved in a southwest–northeast direction: it moved faster with concentrated wind directions from April to June, and slower with increased wind direction dispersion from July to September. The coupling of Lushan Mountain and Poyang Lake drove the spatiotemporal differences in convection through dynamic (triggering by low-level convergence zones) and thermal (lake-land/valley-mountain wind circulations) mechanisms. Based on these findings, 12:00–16:00 in the afternoon was identified as a key period for severe convection early warning in Lushan, and the southwest–northeast movement direction provided a core basis for predicting the impact range of convection. The research results offer important technical support for the refined forecast and early warning of convective weather in this region.

     

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