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北京一次高架对流下山加强特征及雷暴大风预报偏差分析

Analysis of the characteristics of a strengthened elevated convection downhill and the forecast deviation of thunderstorm gales in Beijing

  • 摘要: 利用探空、雷达、自动站、风廓线等多源实况观测资料,结合睿图-临近数值预报系统(RMAPS-NOW)四维变分同化热动力场分析数据,初步分析了2025年5月13日北京首场强对流发展演变特征、下山加强条件和城区雷暴大风预报偏差原因。结果表明:(1)这次强对流过程经历了北京北部、西部先后两个对流下山阶段,造成北京春季罕见大范围大冰雹和北部地区局地雷暴大风天气。(2)第一阶段北部地区山前边界层辐合线的形成有利于对流下山加强发展,并在平原地区形成大范围冷池;第二阶段西部地区在冷池上空形成高架对流,其有利的动力触发和加强条件为冷池上方出现中低层西南急流爬升、风暴后侧西北风和前侧平原东南风辐合,共同造成1.5 km高度以上深厚的辐合和垂直上升运动。(3)对流在平原地区造成边界层大范围扩展的冷池,第二阶段对流下山后地面温度梯度和变压差小,冷池出流(密度流)弱;同时后侧西北风入流急流在风暴内转为上升而非下沉气流,未出现动量下传,两者叠加造成第二阶段预报产生偏差,高架对流下山后北京城区未出现预期的大范围雷暴大风天气。

     

    Abstract: Using multi-source observational data including radiosonde, Doppler weather radar, automatic weather stations and wind profilers, combined with a thermodynamic analysis data derived from RMAPS-NOW 4D-Var data assimilation model, this study investigated the development and evolution characteristics, the intensification mechanisms after moving from the mountains to plain, and the deviation in urban thunderstorm gales forecasts for the first severe convective process in Beijing on May 13, 2025. The results are as follows: (1) This severe convection process experienced two successive phases of convection moving from mountains to plain in Beijing, earlier in the northern region and then in the western region, resulting in rare large-scale heavy hail across Beijing and localized thunderstorm gales in the northern areas in the spring seasons. (2) In the first phase, a boundary layer convergence line existed at the foot of the mountains in the northern region, which was conducive to the enhancement and development of convection movement from the mountains, and the formation of a large-scale cold pool in the plain areas. In the second phase, elevated convection formed over the cold pool in the western region. The favorable dynamic triggering and enhancement conditions were as follows: the low- to middle-level southwest jet stream climbing above the cold pool, and the northwest wind at the rear of the storm converging with the southeast wind in the plain at the front of the storm. These factors jointly led to deep convergence and vertical ascending motion above 1.5 km altitude. (3) Convection caused a cold pool with large-scale expansion within the boundary layer in plain areas. After the convection descended the mountains in the second phase, the temperature gradient and pressure difference were small, leading to weak cold pool outflow (density current). Meanwhile, the northwesterly inflow jet at the rear turned into ascending rather than descending airflow within the storm, with no downward momentum transfer. The combined effects of these two factors resulted in the absence of the expected large-scale thunderstorm gales in downtown Beijing after the descent of the elevated convection in the second phase.

     

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