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安徽ADTD闪电定位系统监测数据质量评估

Quality assessment of monitoring data from the Anhui ADTD lightning location system

  • 摘要: 强对流天气常伴随大量地闪现象,闪电定位系统可监测闪电发生位置,提供雷电预警信息。为提升ADTD闪电定位系统监测数据的应用精度,评估安徽地区地闪监测数据可靠性,基于2014—2023年安徽省ADTD闪电定位系统地闪回击数据,选取参考点和雷电案例,采用网格法、统计与一致性分析等方法,从定位精度和雷电参数(地闪、雷电流幅值)方面对地闪回击监测数据质量展开综合评估。结果表明:(1)在参考点周边,地闪回击高值区与实际位置误差571~1 442 m,高于系统标称误差(500 m),山区地形导致定位误差显著增大,各参考点周边地闪回击次数等值线分布呈现“0~1 km范围内密度偏高,1~2 km范围内逐步趋近区域均值,2 km外显著偏低”的分布规律,且等值线形态与山体走向基本吻合。(2)基于10起典型雷灾案例统计显示,平原地区平均定位误差为428 m,低于该系统500 m的理论定位误差上限,山区受地形遮挡影响,平均误差达1 070 m,属于复杂地形下的正常观测偏差。(3)闪电活动的月际、日变化统计特征与本地强对流气候演变规律匹配良好;雷电流幅值累积概率分布与IEEE标准模型的拟合一致性达99.2%,与标准模型匹配程度极高,ADTD系统在地闪极性识别、时间一致性方面表现出较高的可靠性,但在10~50 kA 区间存在系统性高估倾向。研究分析了不同地形下闪电数据误差特征,为安徽雷电预警、雷灾鉴定、防雷设计提供校正依据,也为国内多地形闪电定位系统质量评估提供参考方法。

     

    Abstract: Severe convective weather is frequently accompanied by abundant cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes. Lightning location systems are capable of capturing lightning strike positions and supporting thunderstorm early warning services. To improve the application accuracy of monitoring data from the ADTD lightning location system and systematically evaluate the reliability of CG lightning monitoring data across Anhui Province, this study adopts CG return stroke data recorded by the Anhui ADTD lightning location system during 2014–2023. Reference observation points and typical lightning disaster cases are selected, and grid analysis, statistical analysis and consistency test methods are comprehensively utilized to evaluate the monitoring data quality of CG return strokes from two dimensions: positioning accuracy and lightning parameters (CG flash distribution and lightning current amplitude).The results are as follows.(1) Around the reference points, the positional error between high-value zones of CG return strokes and actual lightning locations ranges from 571 m to 1 442 m, exceeding the nominal systematic error of 500 m. Mountainous terrain causes prominent growth in positioning error. The contour distribution of CG return stroke counts around each reference point follows a consistent pattern: flash density is overestimated within the 0~1 km buffer, gradually converges to the regional average in the 1~2 km zone, and is markedly underestimated beyond 2 km; furthermore, the contour shapes basically coincide with mountain strike trends. (2) Statistics based on 10 representative lightning disaster cases reveal that the average positioning error over plain areas is 428 m, lower than the theoretical upper limit of systematic positioning error (500 m). Affected by terrain occlusion, the average positioning error in mountainous regions reaches 1070 m, which falls within the normal observational deviation range for complex terrain conditions. (3) The monthly and diurnal statistical characteristics of lightning activity are well consistent with the local evolutionary laws of severe convective climate. The cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitudes achieves a fitting consistency of 99.2% against the IEEE standard model, indicating an excellent matching degree with the standard model. The ADTD system presents high reliability in CG polarity identification and temporal consistency. Nevertheless, it exhibits a systematic overestimation bias for lightning current values within the 10~50 kA range.This study clarifies the error characteristics of lightning data under diverse terrain conditions, which can provide correction bases for lightning early warning, lightning disaster identification and lightning protection design in Anhui Province, and also offer a reference method for quality evaluation of lightning location systems in multi-terrain regions nationwide.

     

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