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安徽省ADTD闪电定位系统监测数据质量评估

Quality assessment of monitoring data from the Anhui ADTD lightning location system

  • 摘要: 强对流天气往往伴随雷电出现,闪电定位(Advanced Direction and Time Difference,ADTD)系统可监测闪电发生位置,提供雷电预警信息。为评估安徽省ADTD闪电监测数据有效性和精确性,提升监测数据的适用性,基于2014—2023年安徽省ADTD闪电定位系统地闪回击数据,选取参考点和雷电案例,采用网格法、统计与一致性分析等方法,从定位精度和雷电参数(地闪极性、雷电流幅值)方面对地闪回击监测数据质量进行评估。结果表明:(1)在参考点周边,地闪回击高值区与实际位置误差571~1 442 m,高于系统标称误差(500 m),山区地形导致定位误差显著增大,各参考点周边地闪回击次数等值线分布呈现“0~1 km范围内密度偏高,1~2 km范围内逐步趋近区域均值,2 km外显著偏低”的分布规律,且等值线形态与山体走向基本吻合。(2)基于10起典型雷灾案例统计显示,平原地区平均定位误差为428 m,低于该系统500 m的理论定位误差上限,山区受地形遮挡影响,平均误差达1 070 m,属于复杂地形下的正常观测偏差。(3)安徽省地闪回击的极性比例、闪电活动的月际、日变化统计特征与本地强对流气候演变规律匹配良好;雷电流幅值累积概率分布与IEEE标准模型的拟合一致性达99.2%,与标准模型匹配程度极高,安徽ADTD系统在地闪极性识别、时间一致性方面表现出较高的可靠性,但在10~50 kA 区间存在系统性高估倾向。该研究反映了不同地形下闪电数据的误差特征,可为安徽雷电预警、雷灾鉴定、防雷设计提供校正依据,也可为国内多地形闪电定位系统质量评估提供参考方法。

     

    Abstract: Severe convective weather is frequently accompanied by abundant thunder and lightning. Lightning location (Advanced Direction and Time Difference, ADTD) systems are capable of capturing lightning strike positions and supporting thunderstorm early warning services. To evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy, improve the application of lightning monitoring data from the ADTD lightning location system across Anhui Province, this study evaluates cloud-to-ground (CG) return stroke observations collected by the Anhui ADTD network during 2014–2023. Reference observation points and typical lightning disaster cases are selected, and grid analysis, statistical analysis and consistency test methods are comprehensively utilized to evaluate the monitoring data quality of CG return strokes from two aspects: positioning accuracy and lightning parameters (CG flash polarity and lightning current amplitude). The results are as follows. (1) Around the reference points, the positional error between high-value zones of CG return strokes and actual lightning locations ranges from 571 m to 1 442 m, exceeding the nominal systematic error of 500 m. Positioning error increases in mountainous terrains. The contour distribution of CG return stroke counts around each reference point follows a consistent pattern: flash density is overestimated within the 0~1 km buffer, gradually converges to the regional average in the 1~2 km zone, and is markedly underestimated beyond 2 km; furthermore, the contour shapes basically coincide with mountain strike trends. (2) Statistics based on 10 representative lightning disaster cases reveal that the average positioning error over plain areas is 428 m, lower than the theoretical upper limit of systematic positioning error (500 m). Terrain shielding increases the average positioning error to 1 070 m, which remains within the normal observational uncertainty under complex terrain conditions. (3) Polarity ratio of cloud-to-ground lightning return strokes, the monthly and diurnal statistical characteristics of lightning activity are well consistent with the climatological characteristics of severe convection in Anhui Province. The cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitudes achieves excellent agreement with the IEEE standard model, with a fitting consistency of 99.2%, indicating high reliability of the ADTD system in CG polarity identification and temporal consistency. However, it exhibits a systematic overestimation bias for lightning current values within the 10~50 kA range. This study quantifies the error characteristics of lightning data under diverse terrain conditions, which can provide a scientific basis for improving lightning early warning, lightning disaster identification and lightning protection design in Anhui Province. The proposed evaluation also offers a reference method for quality evaluation of lightning location systems in regions with complex terrain nationwide.

     

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