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甘肃榆中2025年“8·7”极端暴雨事件极端性特征研究

Extreme precipitation event and its characteristics in yuzhong, Gansu on August 7, 2025

  • 摘要: 2025年8月7—8日,甘肃榆中县遭遇历史罕见极端降水,兴隆山站15 h降雨220.2 mm,达年平均降水量的56%,其中特大暴雨量级的极端降水诱发严重山洪,造成多个乡镇受灾,15人遇难、28人失联。为深入分析此次事件的极端性特征,本文基于多源资料,利用诊断分析、降水极端性指标和热力参数,分析了此次极端暴雨事件的天气实况、环流形势、极端性特征和关键热力参数的演变。结果表明:(1) 此次过程持续时间长、累计降水量大、短时雨强高、局地性突出,其中榆中县共计出现15站次短时强降水,兴隆山站出现连续6 h的短时强降水;省内16个100 mm以上的大暴雨点有4个出现在榆中。(2) 500 hPa“两槽一脊”型与西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)边缘共同维持高能高湿环境;700 hPa切变线是主要的动力抬升触发机制,配合充沛的水汽输送与马衔山地形抬升,构成了此次强降水的有利条件。(3) 降水极端性指标进一步揭示,甘肃中部78站过程降水量、37站小时雨强及79站短时强降水频次均突破建站以来8月历史极值,且空间分布不均。榆中县和临夏回族自治州东部为此次事件强中心,兴隆山等站日降水量超100 mm,达历史极值2倍。(4) 关键热力参数与可降水量的定量分析揭示了事件的触发与维持机制,过程发生前多个强对流参数均突破近10 a 95%的极端阈值,指示大气存在极端不稳定能量;同时,可降水量在多个时次持续超过近10 a年95%分位数,且副高边缘的西南急流与地形抬升形成了稳定的“水汽—能量”输送带,这种“高位势不稳定”与“异常充沛水汽”的时空耦合,加之地形对切变线的阻挡和辐合作用加强,是降水突破历史极值的核心物理成因。(5) 研究利用卫星资料给出了副高边缘型环流背景下局地突发性极端降水的关键预报判据,即地形辐合配合卫星反演热力参数突破极值,为西北复杂地形区局地突发性极端降水预报提供了更为精细的量化依据。

     

    Abstract: On August 7-8, 2025, Yuzhong County, Gansu, experienced a historic extreme precipitation event. The Xinglongshan station recorded 220.2 mm of rainfall over 15 hours, accounting for 56% of the annual average precipitation. This extreme rainfall, characterized by exceptionally heavy downpour magnitudes, triggered severe flash floods that affected multiple townships, resulting in 15 fatalities and 28 missing persons. To conduct an in-depth analysis of the extremeness characteristics of this event, this paper utilizes multi-source data and employs diagnostic analysis, precipitation extremeness indices, and thermal parameters to examine the weather conditions, circulation patterns, extremeness features, and evolution of key thermal parameters during this extreme rainstorm. The results are as follows. (1) This event was characterized by a long duration, high cumulative rainfall, high short-duration rainfall intensity, and pronounced local nature. A total of 15 short-duration heavy rainfall events were recorded at stations across Yuzhong County, with the Xinglongshan station experiencing continuous short-duration heavy rainfall for 6 hours. Among the 16 stations in the province recording rainfall exceeding 100 mm (torrential rain), four were located in Yuzhong. (2) The synoptic pattern featuring a "two-trough-one-ridge" configuration at 500 hPa, combined with the periphery of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (hereafter referred to as the Subtropical High), jointly maintained a high-energy, high-humidity environment. The shear line at 700 hPa served as the primary dynamic lifting trigger mechanism. Coupled with abundant moisture transport and orographic lifting over Maxian Mountain, these factors created favorable conditions for the development of this heavy precipitation event. (3) Precipitation extremeness indices further reveal that the 78-station event-total precipitation, 37-station hourly rainfall intensity, and 79-station frequency of short-duration heavy rainfall in central Gansu all broke the historical August extremes since station establishment, exhibiting significant spatial heterogeneity. Yuzhong County and eastern Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture were the strong centers of this event, with daily precipitation at stations such as Xinglongshan exceeding 100 mm, reaching twice the historical extreme value. (4) Quantitative analysis of key thermal parameters and precipitable water unveiled the triggering and maintenance mechanisms of the event. Prior to the event, multiple severe convection parameters exceeded the 95% extreme threshold of the past decade, indicating the presence of extreme instability energy in the atmosphere. Simultaneously, precipitable water persistently surpassed the 95th percentile of the past decade at multiple time steps. The southwest low-level jet along the Subtropical High periphery, combined with orographic lifting, formed a stable "moisture-energy" transport belt. This spatiotemporal coupling of "high potential instability" and "anomalously abundant moisture", enhanced by the terrain-induced blocking and convergence on the shear line, constituted the core physical mechanism responsible for precipitation breaking historical records. (5) The study, utilizing satellite data, provides key forecasting criteria for localized sudden extreme precipitation events under the Subtropical High periphery circulation pattern. These criteria include topographic convergence coupled with satellite-retrieved thermal parameters exceeding extreme values, offering a more refined quantitative basis for forecasting localized sudden extreme precipitation in complex terrain areas of Northwest China.

     

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