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耦合GR4J与LSTM模型的山区流域径流模拟性能评估

Performance evaluation of runoff simulation in mountainous basins using coupled GR4J and LSTM models

  • 摘要: 为在相同观测数据条件下评估传统水文模型与机器学习模型在山区流域中的径流模拟性能,本文以清江流域为研究区域,基于2014—2023年逐日降水与径流资料,对概念性水文模型(GR4J)与长短时记忆网络模型(LSTM)的性能进行了比较,在此基础上构建了两类融合物理机制与数据驱动的混合模型(松耦合模型Hybrid1和紧耦合模型Hybrid2),并分析了混合建模策略对山区径流模拟性能的提升效果。结果表明,在观测资料受限条件下,采用单一年份资料进行模型率定与训练,LSTM模型整体表现优于GR4J;采用丰枯年组合资料(2017年丰水年与2019年枯水年)进行模型率定与训练,GR4J与LSTM在验证期内的纳什效率系数(NSE)分别为0.742和0.790,Kling-Gupta效率系数(KGE)分别为0.543和0.771,显著优于采用单一年份资料的结果,且模拟性能接近于使用较长时间序列资料(2014—2019年)的水平。混合建模策略进一步提升了径流模拟精度,其中Hybrid2整体优于Hybrid1。Hybrid1将GR4J模拟径流作为LSTM输入特征,属于单向信息融合;而Hybrid2在LSTM输出径流的同时,进一步生成GR4J模型参数,并将其反馈至GR4J模型,形成“LSTM-参数-GR4J”的闭环交互结构。Hybrid2在验证期(2020—2023年)的NSE和KGE分别为0.795和0.771,较GR4J模型分别提高10.7%和52.7%,较LSTM模型分别提高3.7%和14.7%。此外,模型模拟性能呈现明显的季节性差异,各模型在夏季及汛期表现较好,其中Hybrid2在汛期的NSE和KGE均超过0.8,具有良好的洪水期径流模拟能力。研究表明,采用单一年份、丰枯年组合水文资料训练模型具有可行性,紧耦合混合模型能有效提升山区径流模拟精度,可为山区流域径流模拟预报提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To evaluate the runoff simulation performance of traditional hydrological and machine learning models under identical observational data conditions in mountainous basins, this study takes the Qingjiang River Basin as a case study and compares the performance of the conceptual hydrological model (GR4J) and the Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) using the daily precipitation and runoff data from 2014 to 2023. Based on this, two hybrid models integrating physical mechanisms and data-driven approaches are developed, including a loosely coupled model (Hybrid1) and a tightly coupled model (Hybrid2). The improvements in simulation performance achieved by hybrid modeling strategies are further assessed. Results show that, under limited data conditions, when models are calibrated using single-year data, LSTM generally outperforms GR4J. When a combination of wet and dry years (2017 and 2019) is used for calibration, GR4J and LSTM achieve Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.742 and 0.790, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) values of 0.543 and 0.771 during the validation period, respectively. These results are significantly better than those obtained using single-year data and are comparable to those achieved with longer time series data (2014-2019). The hybrid modeling strategy further improves runoff simulation accuracy, with Hybrid2 showing better overall performance than Hybrid1. In Hybrid1, the runoff simulated by GR4J is used as an input feature for LSTM, representing a one-way information fusion strategy. By contrast, Hybrid2 not only outputs runoff through LSTM but also generates GR4J model parameters, which are subsequently fed back into GR4J, thereby forming a closed-loop interaction structure of "LSTM-parameters-GR4J". In particular, Hybrid2 attains NSE and KGE values of 0.795 and 0.771, respectively, during the validation period (2020-2023), representing improvements of 10.7% and 52.7% over GR4J, and 3.7% and 14.7% over LSTM. In addition, model performance exhibits clear seasonal variability, with all models achieving optimal accuracy in summer and the flood season. Hybrid2 achieves NSE and KGE values exceeding 0.8 in the flood season, demonstrating strong capability for flood-period runoff simulation. Overall, the results demonstrate the feasibility of training models with single-year and wet-dry year combination data, and confirm that the tightly coupled hybrid model effectively enhances runoff simulation accuracy in mountainous basins, providing valuable references for runoff simulation and flood forecasting.

     

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