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基于长江流域降水分析的大模型辅助预警方法研究及跨流域验证

Research and cross-basin validation of a large model-assisted early warning method based on precipitation analysis in the Yangtze River Basin

  • 摘要: 针对现有流域降水风险识别与预警表达在区域协同判识和智能化生成方面的不足,基于2026年3月3—16日长江流域100个代表性气象站的逐3 h多要素气象观测资料,本文提出了一种结合站点复合风险指数、区域协同性判识和大语言模型生成的长江流域降水风险预警方法,同时开展了长江流域上、中、下游降水分析。结果表明:长江流域中游降水活动最为显著,并呈现高湿、弱风和低能见度等伴随特征;上游降水以零散、间歇性过程为主,下游降水总体较弱。所构建的方法能够依据上、中、下游不同的降水及环境特征,采用分区差异化权重计算站点复合风险指数,并结合河段权重形成区域协同性指数。通过权重的动态调整,建立更具有代表性的站点复合风险指数与区域协同性指数,综合表征降水风险的强度、持续性和空间同步性,较好地识别局地高风险站点及风险在区域尺度上的空间组织特征。在此基础上,大语言模型可根据监测指标及其判识结果生成相应的结构化预警文本。黄河流域扩展测试表明,该方法具有一定的跨流域迁移能力和应用潜力。研究成果可为流域降水风险监测与智能预警提供参考,并为提升流域气象灾害防御能力提供技术支持。

     

    Abstract: To address the limitations of existing basin-scale precipitation risk identification and early-warning information generation, particularly in regional spatial coherence assessment and intelligent text generation, this study proposes a precipitation risk monitoring method for the Yangtze River Basin by integrating a station-level composite risk index, a regional spatial coherence index, and large language model-based warning generation. The method was developed using 3-hourly multivariate meteorological observations collected at 100 representative stations across the Yangtze River Basin from March 3 to 16, 2026, and was applied to analyze precipitation characteristics in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the basin. The results show that precipitation activity was most pronounced in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and was accompanied by high humidity, weak winds, and low visibility. Precipitation in the upper reaches was dominated by scattered and intermittent events, while precipitation in the lower reaches was generally weak. Based on the distinct precipitation and environmental characteristics of the upper, middle, and lower reaches, the proposed method calculates station-level composite risk indices using region-specific weighting schemes and derives a regional coherence index by incorporating reach-specific weights. Through dynamic weight adjustment, the station-level composite risk index and regional coherence index jointly characterize the intensity, persistence, and spatial synchrony of precipitation risk, thereby enabling the effective identification of local high-risk stations and the spatial organization of risk at the regional scale. On this basis, a large language model generates structured warning messages corresponding to the monitoring indicators and their assessment results. An extended test in the Yellow River Basin indicates that the proposed method has a certain degree of cross-basin transferability and application potential. These findings provide a useful reference for basin-scale precipitation risk monitoring and intelligent early warning, as well as technical support for enhancing meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities across river basins.

     

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