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林春泽, 祁海霞, 智协飞, 白永清, 刘琳. 2013: 中国夏季降水多模式集成概率预报研究. 暴雨灾害, 32(4): 354-359. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.04.008
引用本文: 林春泽, 祁海霞, 智协飞, 白永清, 刘琳. 2013: 中国夏季降水多模式集成概率预报研究. 暴雨灾害, 32(4): 354-359. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.04.008
LIN Chunze, QI Haixia, ZHI Xiefei, BAI Yongqing, LIU Lin. 2013: Study on multi-model ensemble probability forecast for summer precipitation in China. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 32(4): 354-359. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.04.008
Citation: LIN Chunze, QI Haixia, ZHI Xiefei, BAI Yongqing, LIU Lin. 2013: Study on multi-model ensemble probability forecast for summer precipitation in China. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 32(4): 354-359. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.04.008

中国夏季降水多模式集成概率预报研究

Study on multi-model ensemble probability forecast for summer precipitation in China

  • 摘要: 基于TIGGE 资料中的中国气象局(CMA)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、日本气象厅(JMA)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)以及英国气象局(UKMO)五个中心2007—2011 年5 月25 日—8 月31 日中国地区逐日12—36 h、36—60 h、60—84 h、84—108 h、108—132 h 与132—156 h 累积降水集合预报资料,分别利用PoorMan (POOL)和多模式消除偏差(MBRE)两种方法对2011 年各中心降水概率预报进行集成,并采用RPS 和BS评分方法对预报效果进行评估。结果表明,对于12—156 h 逐24 h 累积降水量概率预报,多模式集成预报效果优于单模式预报效果,且多模式消除偏差概率预报效果最好;针对小雨、中雨以及大雨以上降水,PoorMan 和MBRE 概率预报较单中心预报效果均有提高,MBRE 概率预报效果优于PoorMan 方法。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily 12-36 h, 36-60 h, 60-84 h, 84-108 h, 108-132 h and 132-156 h ensemble precipitation probability forecasts over China (0 -60 N, 70 -140 E) from May 25 to August 31 during 2007-2011 from the global ensemble models of CMA, ECMWF, JMA,NCEP and UKMO taken from the TIGGE archives, we assembled the precipitation probability forecasts from each of the above 5 centers in 2011 by the bias-removed ensemble mean (MBRE) and the traditional PoorMan techniques (POOL), and then estimated their forecast skills by calculating the Rank Probability Score (RPS) and the Brier Score (BS). The results show that the multi-model ensemble precipitation probability forecast technique has a higher forecast skill than any single model, and the MBRE technique is better than the POOL technique for the 12-156h precipitation forecasts. It is also found that both POOL and MBRE improved considerably the probabilistic forecasts compared toa single model for all light, moderate and heavy rain events. Furthermore, MBRE has a higher forecast skill than POOL.

     

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