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余江林, 寇正, 项杰, 丁鹏飞. 2014: 掩星弯角资料同化在一次暴雨过程中的应用. 暴雨灾害, 33(2): 181-186. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2014.02.011
引用本文: 余江林, 寇正, 项杰, 丁鹏飞. 2014: 掩星弯角资料同化在一次暴雨过程中的应用. 暴雨灾害, 33(2): 181-186. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2014.02.011
YU Jianglin, KOU Zheng, XIANG Jie, DING Pengfei. 2014: Application of GPS bending angle data assimilation in a rainstorm event. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 33(2): 181-186. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2014.02.011
Citation: YU Jianglin, KOU Zheng, XIANG Jie, DING Pengfei. 2014: Application of GPS bending angle data assimilation in a rainstorm event. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 33(2): 181-186. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2014.02.011

掩星弯角资料同化在一次暴雨过程中的应用

Application of GPS bending angle data assimilation in a rainstorm event

  • 摘要: 使用GPS 掩星弯角资料和NCEP 预报场资料,采用GSI (Grid- point Statistical Interpolation)变分同化系统,对同化掩星弯角资料前后的分析场以及数值预报结果进行详细比较,分析了弯角资料同化对2012 年7 月21 日北京特大暴雨预报结果的影响。结果表明,同化掩星弯角资料对初始场中的温度、湿度产生明显影响,500 hPa 和700 hPa 温度调整中心量值达到0.5 ℃和-0.6 ℃,700 hPa 湿度调整中心最大量值达-0.14 kg·kg-1;同化过程改变了强降水发生前流场结构,明显提高了强降水中心位置、雨带走向及范围、降水强度的预报准确性;由降水TS评分可知,200 mm 以上大暴雨模拟改善效果明显,但对弱降水预报效果较差。

     

    Abstract: Using GPS bending angle and NCEP forecast data , a comparative study was performed to the Beijing rainstorm event on July 21,2012, with and without assimilation of the bending angle data, based on the GSI three-dimensional assimilation system. The result showedthat bending angle data had clear impacts on the temperature and specific humidity fields; the central temperature increment is 0.5 ℃ at500 hPa and -0.6 ℃ at 700 hPa; the central increment of specific humidity at 700 hPa is -0.14 kg·kg-1. Assimilation of bending angle datachanged the stream field and significantly improved the accuracy of the forecast, including the center location of precipitation, rain belt trendand precipitation intensity. According to the threat scores of simulating precipitation, the improvement on the simulation above 200 mm is more evident, but less effective on weak rainfall.

     

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