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周冠博, 高守亭. 2014: 二阶位涡在暴雨预报中的应用. 暴雨灾害, 33(4): 320-324. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2014.04.003
引用本文: 周冠博, 高守亭. 2014: 二阶位涡在暴雨预报中的应用. 暴雨灾害, 33(4): 320-324. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2014.04.003
ZHOU Guanbo, GAO Shouting. 2014: The application of second order potential vorticity in the forecast of rainstorm. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 33(4): 320-324. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2014.04.003
Citation: ZHOU Guanbo, GAO Shouting. 2014: The application of second order potential vorticity in the forecast of rainstorm. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 33(4): 320-324. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2014.04.003

二阶位涡在暴雨预报中的应用

The application of second order potential vorticity in the forecast of rainstorm

  • 摘要: :提出并推导二阶位涡物理量,并利用美国NCEP/NCAR 0.5 ° × 0.5° GFS 的24 h 预报资料,计算了东北冷涡暴雨、锋面暴雨、低槽暴雨、台风暴雨等类型暴雨500—850 hPa 二阶位涡绝对值的垂直积分,与相对应时刻的24 h 累积地面观测降水量进行对比。结果表明:二阶位涡的水平分布与暴雨落区有较好的对应关系,其对观测降水具有指示预测作用。2013 年6—8 月华南地区(20°—35°N,105°—125°E)24 h 预报的6 h 累计降水量大于10 mm 的ETS 评分表明,二阶位涡预报降水的平均ETS 评分高于美国GFS预报降水的平均ETS 评分,其对降水有较好的指示作用。

     

    Abstract: The second order potential vorticity was introduced and derived in this paper. Using NCEP/NCAR 0.5°× 0.5°GFS 24 h forecastdata, the vertical integration of the absolute value of the second order potential vorticity from 500 hPa to 850 hPa was calculated for rainstormsassociated northeast cold vortices, fronts, cold shear lines and typhoons. The calculated results were compared with the corresponding observed24 h accumulative ground precipitation. The results show that the second order potential vorticity and the precipitation areas are closelyrelated, and the second order potential vorticity is a good indicator to forecast precipitation. The ETS grades were further calculated for caseswith 6 h accumulative precipitation higher than 10 mm in the 24 h forecast in south-China area (20°-35°N, 105°-125°E) from June to Augustin 2013. which shows that the second order potential vorticity is a good forecast utility to the observed precipitation.

     

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