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王在文, 梁旭东, 范水勇, 高华. 2016: 数值模式降水评分对分辨率的敏感性初探. 暴雨灾害, 35(1): 10-16. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.01.002
引用本文: 王在文, 梁旭东, 范水勇, 高华. 2016: 数值模式降水评分对分辨率的敏感性初探. 暴雨灾害, 35(1): 10-16. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.01.002
WANG Zaiwen, LIANG Xudong, FAN Shuiyong, GAO Hua. 2016: Impact of spatial resolution on precipitation forecast score in numerical weather prediction models. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(1): 10-16. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.01.002
Citation: WANG Zaiwen, LIANG Xudong, FAN Shuiyong, GAO Hua. 2016: Impact of spatial resolution on precipitation forecast score in numerical weather prediction models. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(1): 10-16. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.01.002

数值模式降水评分对分辨率的敏感性初探

Impact of spatial resolution on precipitation forecast score in numerical weather prediction models

  • 摘要: 针对高分辨率数值模式降水预报检验中存在的问题,探讨模式分辨率的改变对模式降水评分的影响。对同一区域人为改变测站疏密度,讨论测站的疏密对降水预报评分的影响,从检验结果来看,降水评分与模式预报的水平分辨率有较强的关联,对测站的疏密程度也有很明显的依赖性,测站的疏密度不同,评分的差距可能很大。

     

    Abstract: The impact of model horizontal resolution change on the forecast skill in numerical precipitation prediction (NWP) models is explored on account of some problems existing in the verification of high resolution NWP models. Threshold scores of the same forecast against observations with different densities in the same area are compared. Results show that precipitation forecast skill changes by the variation of either model resolution or observing site density.

     

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