Abstract:
The wind, temperature and dew-point temperature outputs from a numerical prediction model are interpreted by moist
Q vector dynamically. The roles of orographic forcing are considered. Finally, an interpreting forecast rainfall field is produced, which is isolated from the counterpart direct output by numerical prediction model, i.e., moist
Q vector interpretation technique (termed as Q
MVIP). Based on actual rain data of fourteen landfalling typhoons in eastern Chinaduring June to September from 2010 to 2014 and outputs predicted by eastern China regional mesoscale numerical prediction model, which is based on WRF V3.1(hereafter termed as WRF), quantitative forecasting ability of Q
MVIP to precipitation associated with landfalling typhoons in eastern China is verified statistically. The results show that the Q
MVIP forecast scores are higher than the counterparts of the WRF for rain with intensity over 25.0 mm·(24 h)
-1 and 50.0 mm·(24 h)
-1. Furthermore, combining the precipitation during landfall of typhoon Fitow (2013), the comparisonsshow that the performances of Q
MVIP are better than the counterparts of the WRF in the context of reflecting falloutarea and intensity of the rain with intensity over 50.0 mm·(24 h)
-1. These verifications indicate that the Q
MVIP mayberemedy the deficit of the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) ability of current numerical models to landfall typhoons.