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徐同, 王晓峰, 张蕾, 杨玉华, 李佳. 2016: 加密探空资料在华东区域业务模式中的应用试验. 暴雨灾害, 35(4): 306-314. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.04.002
引用本文: 徐同, 王晓峰, 张蕾, 杨玉华, 李佳. 2016: 加密探空资料在华东区域业务模式中的应用试验. 暴雨灾害, 35(4): 306-314. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.04.002
XU Tong, WANG Xiaofeng, ZHANG Lei, YANG Yuhua, LI Jia. 2016: The application test of intensive radiosonde observations in the East China regional numerical model system. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(4): 306-314. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.04.002
Citation: XU Tong, WANG Xiaofeng, ZHANG Lei, YANG Yuhua, LI Jia. 2016: The application test of intensive radiosonde observations in the East China regional numerical model system. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(4): 306-314. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.04.002

加密探空资料在华东区域业务模式中的应用试验

The application test of intensive radiosonde observations in the East China regional numerical model system

  • 摘要: 采用中国气象局2014年6月1日—30日14时加密探空资料,利用华东区域中尺度数值预报业务系统比较同化加密探空观测资料前后模式预报结果的差异。研究表明, 同化加密探空资料后,对模式初始时刻不同高度的位势高度、比湿、温度、风速等变量均有一定的影响;对位势高度、温度和风场的影响在高层100—150 hPa比较显著,而对比湿的影响主要体现在低层700—750 hPa。同化加密探空资料后模式初始场更接近实况。批量数值试验的统计检验表明,同化加密探空观测资料后对强降水及形势场预报均有不同程度改进,24 h暴雨和大暴雨量级降水的预报技巧分别提高了2.5%和8.1%。

     

    Abstract: One-month data assimilation experiments were conducted to examine the impact of assimilating the intensive radiosonde observations in the East China regional numerical model system. Results indicated that assimilating intensive radiosonde observations had influence on geopotential height, specific humidity, temperature and wind speed at different heights in the model initial time. The influence on geopotential height and wind speed is relatively significant at high-level from 100 hPa to 150 hPa. The influence on specific humidity is relatively significant at low level from 700 hPa to 750 hPa. The model initial field obtained from including intensive radiosonde observations was more close to the observed results. The statistical results showed that assimilation of intensive radiosonde observations improves the forecast accuracy for heavy rainfall forecast and synoptic field forecast in some extent. The threat scores of 24 h rainstorm and heavy rain forecast were improved about 2.5% and 8.1%, respectively.

     

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