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姜智怀, 巩志宇, 李嫦, 余焰文, 蔡哲. 2016: 基于降水时空分布情景模拟的暴雨洪涝致灾危险性评价. 暴雨灾害, 35(5): 464-470. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.05.008
引用本文: 姜智怀, 巩志宇, 李嫦, 余焰文, 蔡哲. 2016: 基于降水时空分布情景模拟的暴雨洪涝致灾危险性评价. 暴雨灾害, 35(5): 464-470. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.05.008
JIANG Zhihuai, GONG Zhiyu, LI Chang, YU Yanwen, CAI Zhe. 2016: Storm flooding disaster risk assessment based on scenarios simulation of spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(5): 464-470. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.05.008
Citation: JIANG Zhihuai, GONG Zhiyu, LI Chang, YU Yanwen, CAI Zhe. 2016: Storm flooding disaster risk assessment based on scenarios simulation of spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(5): 464-470. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.05.008

基于降水时空分布情景模拟的暴雨洪涝致灾危险性评价

Storm flooding disaster risk assessment based on scenarios simulation of spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation

  • 摘要: 致灾因子危险性评价是进行风险区划的重要环节。本文采用江西省贡水流域超警戒水位的降水作为暴雨致灾因子,以最优极值函数分布方法计算研究该流域的重现期面雨量,利用超警戒水位降水过程的降水量时间分布规律和降水空间经验正交函数分析结果,结合FloodArea模型开展不同降水时空分布情景的洪水演进模拟,以模拟淹没水深作为指标建立暴雨致灾危险性评价等级,对不同降水时空分布情景下贡水流域暴雨致灾危险性进行评价。结果显示:不同的降水时空分布对暴雨洪涝致灾危险性评价影响较大。该方法是完善流域内暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划和评估工作的基础,在此基础上开展流域内不同承灾体的脆弱性评价和暴露度评价,可为地方政府制订减灾规划与预案等提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Risk assessment of disaster-inducing factors is an important part of risk regionalization. Using the precipitation over alerting water level in the Gongshui River region in Jiangxi province for rainstorm disaster-inducing factor, in this study we have calculated the area rainfall of different return periods by using the optimal extreme value distribution function method. In addition, the temporal distribution index of peak rainfall in the precipitation events over alerting water level and the analysis of spatial precipitation based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) are used to simulate flood evolution at the different distribution scenarios of precipitation on the basis of FloodArea model. Using the inundated depth simulated for an index to build the assessment level, the risk of rainstorm disaster-inducing in the Gongshui River region is assessed in the different scenarios of spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation. The results show that different spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation can have a distinct effect on the danger assessment of rainstorm disaster-inducing. Based on risk regionalization and estimate of rainstorm flooding disasters in the precipitation area, developing vulnerability and exposure assessment of different hazard affected bodies can provide a valuable reference for the development of disaster mitigation planning and plans of local governments.

     

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