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支树林, 包慧濛, 张弛. 2017: 一次夜间发展起来的大暴雨的中尺度对流条件及特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 36(1): 42-52. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.01.006
引用本文: 支树林, 包慧濛, 张弛. 2017: 一次夜间发展起来的大暴雨的中尺度对流条件及特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 36(1): 42-52. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.01.006
ZHI Shulin, BAO huilmeng, ZHANG Chi. 2017: Convective conditions and characteristics analysisof regional torrential rain from midnight with flood hazards. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(1): 42-52. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.01.006
Citation: ZHI Shulin, BAO huilmeng, ZHANG Chi. 2017: Convective conditions and characteristics analysisof regional torrential rain from midnight with flood hazards. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(1): 42-52. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.01.006

一次夜间发展起来的大暴雨的中尺度对流条件及特征分析

Convective conditions and characteristics analysisof regional torrential rain from midnight with flood hazards

  • 摘要: 利用常规气象观测资料、抚州多普勒天气雷达、FY2F卫星云图云顶亮温(TBB)以及NCEP再分析等资料,分析探讨了2015年6月22日南昌地区致灾大暴雨过程的中尺度对流条件及形成原因,结果发现:此次大暴雨过程发生在副热带高压西北侧、西风槽前上下一致的西南气流里,西风槽与副热带高压的共同作用、异常充沛的水汽、逐渐增强的暖平流与中层南下冷空气的叠加影响、高的不稳定能量等因素条件是造成此次暖区内对流性降水发展和维持、并最终形成致灾大暴雨天气的主要原因。更为显著的增暖增湿过程使得南昌附近的对流条件明显好于周边地区,加之南昌西侧的山地地形和东侧的鄱阳湖水体共同影响增强了触发抬升条件,造成了降水在该地得以加强和维持,导致局地性特征非常明显。边界层内偏东气流的存在和风辐合加剧了降水回波的发展,“列车效应”导致了强降水持续,且VIL值随时间的变化对雨强预报有较好的指示作用。

     

    Abstract: For purpose of understanding the causes of the torrential rain with flood hazards occurred in Nanchang area on June 22 2015, the conditions and possible causes of mesoscale convection weather influence are analyzed and discussed by analyzing data from conventional observations, Fuzhou Doppler radar, FY-2F meteorological satellite imagery and NCEP reanalysis. The result shows that this torrential rain event occurred in the region of northwest subtropical high, with vertically-uniform southwest airflow right before a trough. This disastrous rain event with evident convection was formed and maintained in a warmer region. The possible causes include the combined effects of the cold trough and subtropical high, abnormal abundant moisture, superimposed influence of gradually increased advection of warm and cold air in middle level and high unstable energy. Significant warm humidification process makes convection conditions near Nanchang area more favorable than its surroundings. The lifting condition was also enhanced by combined effects of mountainous terrain in west and the Poyang Lake water, of which the combined effect resulted in the enhancement and maintenance of the regional torrential rain with disaster. When the mesoscale convective cloud was in growing stage, heavy rainfall of above 30 mm·h-1 mostly happened rear to the part of cold cloud cover of TBB lower than -62 ℃. The presence of easterly airstream and its convergence in the boundary layer intensified the development of precipitation echoes. The "train effect" caused the continually heavy rain, and the time variation of echoes' VIL values show a good indication for forecasting the short-term rain intensity.

     

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