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王芬, 严小冬, 谷晓平, 李腹广, 周仕鹏. 2017: 2006—2015年黔西南初夏短时强降水时空特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 36(5): 460-466. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.05.008
引用本文: 王芬, 严小冬, 谷晓平, 李腹广, 周仕鹏. 2017: 2006—2015年黔西南初夏短时强降水时空特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 36(5): 460-466. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.05.008
WANG Fen, YAN Xiaodong, GU Xiaoping, LI Fugang, ZHOU Shipeng. 2017: Characteristics of one-hour short-time heavy precipitation over southwestern Guizhou in the summer during 2006-2015. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(5): 460-466. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.05.008
Citation: WANG Fen, YAN Xiaodong, GU Xiaoping, LI Fugang, ZHOU Shipeng. 2017: Characteristics of one-hour short-time heavy precipitation over southwestern Guizhou in the summer during 2006-2015. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(5): 460-466. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.05.008

2006—2015年黔西南初夏短时强降水时空特征分析

Characteristics of one-hour short-time heavy precipitation over southwestern Guizhou in the summer during 2006-2015

  • 摘要: 利用黔西南2006—2015年8县站5、6月逐小时降水量,对短时强降水特征及其与暴雨的关系进行分析,得出如下结论:(1)黔西南初夏短时强降水呈现“东多北多西南少”的空间分布,发生频次最多的是望谟。20—30 mm·h-1、40—50 mm·h-1及大于50 mm·h-1的短时强降水空间特征均表现为“东多西少”,发生频次最多的都是望谟,30—40 mm·h-1的短时强降水空间特征表现为“东北多西南少”,发生频次最多的是晴隆;(2)近10年初夏短时强降水呈现波动,在2007年达到峰值,随后迅速下降,2009—2015年维持较为平稳的态势,在2011年达到最低值;(3)黔西南初夏短时强降水出现的主要时段在夜间,占所有短时强降水的79.1%,主要集中时段为夜间的20:00—04:00,在夜间的23:00—01:00达到峰值,白天为短时强降水的低发时段;(4) EOF第一特征向量场呈现出明显的全州一致同位相分布特征,第二特征向量场表现为南—北反向变化特征,第三特征向量场表现为东北—西南反向变化特征;(5) 6月短时强降水发生频次占所有初夏短时强降水累计频次的69.5%,5月占30.5%,且无论任何级别的短时强降水6月发生的比例均明显高于5月;(6)短时强降水与暴雨关系密切,空间相似系数为0.9;近10年初夏169站次暴雨天气过程中有125次伴有短时强降水,近10年发生的239次短时强降水中,有229次造成了暴雨天气;暴雨日数与短时强降水频次相关系数为0.64,暴雨量与当日最大小时降水量的相关系数也达到0.53, 均通过了0.05的显著性检验。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data during 2006-2015, the characteristics of short-time precipitation and the relation between storm and short-time precipitation were investigated. The results are as follows. (1) The spatial distribution of short-time strong rainfall showed an "east and north more southwest less" pattern; (2) In recent 10 years precipitation fluctuated: peaked in 2007 followed by a rapid fell, and maintained a relatively stable trend during 2009-2015, with a lowest value in 2011; (3) Main time period of summer precipitation is in the night, accounting for 79.1%, and concentrated from 20:00 to 04:00, with peak from 23:00 to 01:00; (4)The spatial distribution of short-time strong rainfall is multi-modal, i.e., the first characteristic vector field is uniform throughout the whole area, the second characteristic vector is characterized by the north-south reverse variation, and the third characteristic vector field is characterized by northeast-southwest of reverse variation; (5) Short-time precipitation occurring in June accounts for 69.5%, and that occurring in May accounts for 30.5%; (6) The space similarity coefficient between short-time heavy rain and heavy rain was 0.9. There were 125 times of short-term heavy rain accompanied with 169 stand heavy rain weather conditions, and 239 times of short-time strong rainfall caused 229 times of storm events. Heavy rain days and the short-time strong rainfall frequency has a correlation coefficient of 0.64. Rainstorm scale and the biggest hour rainfall level has a correlation coefficient of 0.53. Both passed the reliability test of the 0.05.

     

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