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“杜鹃”登陆减弱后所致的宁波大暴雨成因分析

Causation analysis of a severe rainfall at Ningbo triggered by weakened landfalling typhoon "DuJuan"

  • 摘要: 利用常规观测和自动站加密资料、卫星云图、雷达及NCEP再分析资料,诊断分析1521号台风“杜鹃”登陆福建减弱过程中造成宁波异常强降水原因,结果表明:本次宁波强降雨是由“杜鹃”减弱后的外围云系在加强西进的副高边缘通过对流发展引发的,伴有强雷电,具有低质心降水特点;中低层大范围、长时间持续的水汽能量输送给本次强降水提供了必要的水汽条件,水汽通量散度出现负值、极小值、变大与强降水的开始、增幅、结束有提前12 h的预示期;能量场的梯度大小和位置对台风暴雨的预报有较好的指示作用,强降水发生在能量场梯度大值区出现12 h之后;本次大暴雨过程发生在对流不稳定条件下,并伴有和暖湿气流相联系的湿位涡水平分量的发展,触发了垂直涡度的增长;中尺度辐合线的位置和强度对未来1 h降水预报有非常好的指示作用。

     

    Abstract: In this article we analyze the abnormal severe rainfall in Ningbo triggered by weakened landfalling Typhoon "DuJuan"(1521) in Fujian using routine observational data, AWS data, satellite data, radar data and NCEP reanalysis data. The heavy rainfall in Ningbo was caused by the convective development of clouds associated with the weakened typhoon on the edge of the enforced westward moving subtropical high. The rainfall is accompanied by strong lightning characterized with low centroid precipitation. The large-scale sustained water vapor supply by low-level jet stream is a necessary condition for precipitation. The negative value, minimum are the beginning of incease of water vapor flux are 12 hours ahead of the beginning, increasing and end of heavy rainfall. The gradient and location of the energy field are good indications for the prediction of typhoon rainstorm. Heavy rainfall occurs 12 hours after the appearance of large gradient area in the energy field. Heavy rainfall occurred under the condition of convective instability, accompanied by the development of the horizontal component of the moist potential vorticity associated with the warm and wet flow, riggering the increase of vertical vorticity. The location and intensity of the meso-scale convergence line is an accurate indication for precipitation of the next hour.

     

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