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基于暴雨强度公式对山西暴雨空间分布的分析

Study on spatial distribution of rainstorm based on rainstorm intensity formula in Shanxi Province

  • 摘要: 根据山西省107个气象站1981-2012年10个历时的年最大降水量资料,利用Gumbel分布函数调整频率,得出雨强(i)-历时(t)-重现期(p)关系表。在此基础上,首先采用无约束的非线性优化求解方法拟合得到误差最小的暴雨强度公式参数,然后对暴雨强度公式参数进行分组拟合试验,得到另外一组暴雨强度公式,以最小误差的暴雨强度公式结果为标准,最终给出合理的暴雨强度公式参数空间分布,其结果可用于缺乏气象观测站的区域根据下垫面和气候分区特点构建暴雨强度公式。

     

    Abstract: The maximum precipitation data in Shanxi Province are collected from 107 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2012. In reference to those data, the i-t-p relationship among precipitation intensity, duration and recurrence period is derived by the method of Gumbel adjusting frequency. Based on i-t-p relationship, the parameters of rainstorm intensity formula can be extracted by the unconstrained nonlinear optimization method. A novel group parameter extracting method is tried. The spatial distribution of the parameters of rainstorm intensity formula is given in this paper. The results can be used to construct rainstorm intensity formula in areas without meteorological observation stations according to the characteristics of the underlying surface and climate zone.

     

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