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河南强降水分布特征及其电网灾害风险区划研究

Study on the spatial-temporal characteristics of heavy rain and the disaster risk zoning on Henan Power Grid

  • 摘要: 强降水导致的电线短路、内涝及次生灾害每年都造成河南省电力系统的巨大损失,基于53 a日降水、6 a的降水资料,配合供电量、全社会用电量和人均国内生产总值(GDP)以及高分辨率的地形和水系资料,进行强降水灾害风险区划研究。结果发现,河南省国家站年均暴雨日2.3 d,夏季暴雨占全年的75%,暴雨频次从南向北、从东向西递减,中心位于桐柏山-大别山;短时强降水频次7、8月最大,高频站点集中在桐柏山-大别山地区和黄淮海平原的黄河以北地区等四个区域。电网强降水灾害风险区划综合考虑了致灾因子(暴雨和短时强降水)危险性,孕灾环境(地形和水系)敏感性,承灾体(供电量和用电量)易损性以及防灾抗灾能力(人均GDP)。强降水频次和电网分布是风险区划的关键因素,河流对其周边地区影响显著。河南省电网强降水灾害风险区划等级最高的地区是伏牛山地区、黄河海河的平原流域、商丘地区以及淮河的平原流域;前两个区域有发电厂、密集的特高压和超高压变电站和线路,供电量和用电量巨大,尤其需要关注。

     

    Abstract: The wire short circuit, urban pluvial flooding, and secondary disasters initiated by heavy rainfall cause huge loss of electric power system in Henan Province every year. Based on the daily precipitation data of 53 years and hourly precipitation data of 6 years, the statistical characteristics of precipitation in Henan Province are analyzed. In conjunction with social electricity consumption, electricity supply, per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and high-resolution topography and river networks data, risk zoning of Power Grid disasters caused by rainstorm and short-duration heavy rain in Henan Province are studied. Results indicate the frequency of average annual rainstorm is 2.3 days. Of them, 75% rainstorms occur in summer. The frequency of rainstorm decreases gradually from south to north, from east to west in Henan Province. The rainstorm center is located in the Tongbai-Dabie mountain area. The frequency of short-duration heavy rain is the highest in July and August. The main centers of short-duration heavy rain are located in the Funiu Mountain area and the Tongbai-Dabie mountain area. The danger of disaster-causing factors (rainstorm and short-duration heavy rain), sensitivity of disaster-formative environments (topography and river networks), vulnerability of disaster-bearing body (electricity consumption and electricity supply) and ability of disaster prevention (per capita GDP) are comprehensively considered on the disaster risk zoning on Henan Power Grid. The key factors of risk zoning are the frequency of heavy rain and distribution of Power Grid. Rivers also have significant impacts on their surrounding areas. The four regions with the highest level of disaster risk zoning on Henan Power Grid are, Funiu Mountain area, the plain basin area of the Yellow River and the Hai River, the Shangqiu City area and the plain basin area of the Huai River. The first two areas have power plants, intensive UHV and EHV substations and transmission lines, and huge power consumption and supply in urban area, which require particular attentions.

     

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