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催化防雹最优方案的数值试验探究

Numerical experiments to explore the optimal scheme of hail suppression with seeding

  • 摘要: 利用全弹性三维冰雹云数值模式,对2016年6月5日河南三门峡单体雹云个例进行模拟,将催化防雹的方式、时间、区域、剂量指标动态化组合形成81种方案,从而更高效、更精细地探究能够产生显著防雹效果的作业指标值域,探究催化防雹作业指标的最佳组合方案。结果表明:(1)减雹效果显著的催化方式、区域、剂量非固定单一指标,而催化在雹云初期内越早越好;催化防雹的显著效果取决于适合冰雹个体的各催化作业指标的优化组合。在雹云形成最早期,使用合理值域内的最大剂量对过冷水含量中心进行垂直催化,可使减雹效果最显著。(2)催化防雹后降雹量的减少转化为降雨量的增加,总降水量随之增加。(3)霰转化成冻滴、雹粒撞冻过冷云水增长二者的减少是冰雹时空积分总量减少的重要因素。(4)试验获得的8种减雹效果显著方案,其冰雹含水量极大值较未催化方案均减少80%;催化防雹对冰雹含水量极大值的分布位置影响很小。

     

    Abstract: The IAP Three-Dimensional Convective Storm Model is used to simulate the cell hail cloud occurred on 5 June 2016 in Sanmenxia City, Henan province. Seeding method, time, area, and dose are dynamically combined into 81 schemes. We can more efficiently and subtly explore the ranges of seeding operation indicators that produce significant hail suppression effect, and the optimal combination scheme. Results show that:(1) Seeding method, time, area and dose with significant hail suppression effect are neither fixed nor unique. Hail suppression with seeding should be conducted the sooner the better. Significant effect of suppression with seeding depends on appropriate combination schemes of indicators. The scheme of seeding vertically, at the early hailstorm, in center of the hail supercooled water content, and with maximum dose in reasonable range, can produce the most significant effect of hail suppression. (2) The decrease of hail converts to the increase of rainfall, and the total precipitation is increased. (3) The total amount of hail is reduced by the decrease of graupel into frozen drop and the collision of hail and cold cloud water. (4) The maximum of hail water content is decreased by 80% compared to no-seeding scheme.

     

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