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雷达资料融合和冷热启动对AREM模式强降水预报的影响分析

Analysis on impacts of radar data integration and cold or hot start on heavy rainfall prediction of AREM model

  • 摘要: 针对2012年7月21日北京发生的特大暴雨过程,利用局地分析预报系统(LAPS)在AREM(Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model)背景场的基础上融合了多普勒雷达资料,比较融合雷达资料后初始场变化,分析冷热启动模拟效果差异,研究雷达资料融合和冷热启动对AREM模式强降水预报影响。结果表明:LAPS融合雷达资料后,初始场增加了中尺度信息和水汽强度,增强了东部水汽输送,雨带中心区位置和降水强度均有所改善。融合雷达资料并进行热启动能够改善AREM模式spin up问题,增大上升气流的速度,进一步增强降水强度。

     

    Abstract: Based on the background field of the AREM (Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model) IC (Initial Condition) analysis, Doppler radar data are integrated into the Local Analysis Prediction System (LAPS) for a heavy rainstorm event in Beijing on 21 July 2012. To study impacts of the radar data integration and cold or hot start on the heavy rainfall prediction of AREM model forecast, the difference of the initial fields and the difference of the simulation results under the cold and hot start are compared before and after the integration of Doppler radar data. The results show that:the initial field increases meso-scale information and vapor intensity after the radar data are ingested into the LAPS, and the vapor transportation in the east is also increased. Additionally, the center of the rain belt and the precipitation intensity forecasts are improved. Radar data integration and hot start can improve spin up of AREM model, and increase the upward current velocity, further improve the intensity of the precipitation.

     

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