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张顺谦, 王春学, 陈文秀, 邓彪. 2019: 四川省暴雨过程强度及损失评估方法研究. 暴雨灾害, 38(1): 79-85. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.01.010
引用本文: 张顺谦, 王春学, 陈文秀, 邓彪. 2019: 四川省暴雨过程强度及损失评估方法研究. 暴雨灾害, 38(1): 79-85. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.01.010
ZHANG Shunqian, WANG Chunxue, CHEN Wenxiu, Deng Biao. 2019: Study on evaluation method of intensity and loss of rainstorm in Sichuan Province. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 38(1): 79-85. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.01.010
Citation: ZHANG Shunqian, WANG Chunxue, CHEN Wenxiu, Deng Biao. 2019: Study on evaluation method of intensity and loss of rainstorm in Sichuan Province. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 38(1): 79-85. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.01.010

四川省暴雨过程强度及损失评估方法研究

Study on evaluation method of intensity and loss of rainstorm in Sichuan Province

  • 摘要: 利用1961-2015年四川省逐日降水资料、典型年份各区县暴雨灾情、GDP、人口和耕地面积资料,采用加权求和法建立基于归一化的过程降水量、最大日降水量和过程持续天数的暴雨综合强度指数及等级标准;基于经济损失率、人口受灾率和作物受灾率指标,采用灰色关联法确定灾害严重程度;利用相关分析法分别建立基于暴雨综合强度指数和基于暴雨灰色关联度的灾害损失评估模型,分析了各地不同重现期暴雨可能造成的经济损失率。结果表明:暴雨综合强度指数能够较好地揭示不同强度等级暴雨的时频和空间分布特征,暴雨过程造成的损失与暴雨综合强度指数和暴雨灰色关联度均显著相关,两种损失评估模型的拟合与试评估效果均较好,5 a一遇暴雨的经济损失率多在3%以下,50 a一遇暴雨的经济损失率多在3%以上,盆地北部和西部山区在5%以上,局地可达7%~9%。

     

    Abstract: By using daily precipitation data in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2015, data during typical years on the rainstorm disaster, GDP, population and cultivated area, and the method of weighted summation based on normalized process precipitation, maximum daily precipitation and the duration, the comprehensive strength index and the grade standard of rainstorm are established. Based on the economic loss rate, population affected rate and crop affected rate indices, the grey correlation method is used to determine the disaster degree. The relational analysis method is used to establish the disaster loss assessment model based on the comprehensive strength index of rainstorm and the grey correlation degree of rainstorm, respectively. The possible economic loss rate caused by different return periods of rainstorm is studied, too. The result shows that the comprehensive strength index of rainstorm can reveal the time-frequency and spatial distribution characteristics of heavy rainfall in different intensities. The loss caused by rainstorm process is significantly related to the comprehensive strength index and the grey correlation degree of rainstorm, and the results of both the two kinds of loss assessment models are good. The economic loss rate of rainstorm of 5-year return period is mostly below 3%, and that of 50-year return period is above 3%. It in the north and west of Sichuan basin is more than 5%, and in some areas it could reach 7% to 9%.

     

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