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近60 a上海金山地区暴雨的气候变化特征及暴雨雨量风险评估研究

Study on climate change characteristics of rainstorm and risk assessment of rainstorm rainfall in Jinshan of Shanghai in recent 60 years

  • 摘要: 利用上海金山站1959-2016年的逐日降水序列,采用突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,对近60 a金山地区暴雨的气候变化特征进行分析,并对暴雨雨量进行风险评估。结果表明:(1)近60 a来金山暴雨日数和暴雨强度分别呈缓慢和不显著的增加趋势,暴雨日数于1988年发生由"偏少到偏多"的突变;暴雨初日呈现逐年提前的趋势,20世纪90年代起金山进入暴雨早发期,21世纪以来暴雨终日呈现较明显的推后趋势。(2)台风暴雨的风险概率和致灾强度是最大的,其次是低压暴雨;暖区暴雨、静止锋暴雨、低压暴雨和台风暴雨的高风险水平分别为50~75 mm、50~75 mm、50~90 mm和50~100 mm,对应的风险概率为28.4%~100%、28.9%~100%、32.3%~100%和33.6%~100%。

     

    Abstract: In this paper we study the climate change characteristics of rainstorm and risk assessment of rainstorm rainfall in Jinshan of Shanghai in recent 60 years with the daily rain data at Jinshan meteorological station from 1959 to 2016 by the methods of abrupt change test, morlet wavelet and so on. The results are as follows. (1) The rainstorm days had been increasing and rainstorm intensity had been increasing indistinctively in Jinshan in recent 60 years. The mutation of rainstorm days from low to high occurred in 1988. The first date of rainstorm had tended to occur early in the recent 60 years. Jinshan had been into the early occurrence stage of rainstorm since 1990s. The last date of rainstorm had tended to occur lately since the 21st century. (2) The risk probability and disaster intensity were the highest for typhoon rainstorm, followed by low pressure rainstorm. The high risk levels of warm sector rainstorm, stationary front rainstorm, low pressure rainstorm and typhoon rainstorm were 50-75 mm, 50-75 mm, 50-90 mm and 50-100 mm, respectively. The corresponding risk probabilities were 28.4%-100%, 28.9%-100%, 32.3%-100% and 33.6%-100%, respectively.

     

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