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中国暴雨理论的发展历程与重要进展

The major advances and development process of the theory of heavy rainfalls in China

  • 摘要: 中国东部位于东亚季风区,随着东亚夏季风的爆发、盛行和向北推进,东亚夏季风主雨带明显自南向北移动,在中国东部地区依次形成华南前汛期雨期、江淮梅雨季和北方雨季。这三个雨季和地区也是暴雨多发期和地区。因而中国地区的暴雨既不同于印度季风区的热带类型暴雨,也不同于北美与欧洲地区中纬度型的暴雨,它是由热带季风气流与来自中高纬的冷空气强烈相互作用下发生的,不但强度大,而且持续时间长和范围广。早在20世纪初期,中国科学家就开始研究中国暴雨,经过长期的努力,在暴雨理论、暴雨分析和预报方面,获得了重大的进展。本文将对中国暴雨的理论与重要进展作一综述和评论,共包括四个方面:(1)中国暴雨的主要气候特点;(2)中国暴雨理论研究的发展历程;(3)中国暴雨发生机理研究的主要成果;(4)未来中国对流尺度暴雨理论研究的挑战。

     

    Abstract: China is situated in the East Asian monsoon region. As the East Asian summer monsoon sets in, prevails and northward advances, the major rainbelt accompanying the East Asian summer monsoon also stepwise moves northward, successively forming the presummer rainy period in South China, the Meiyu period in the Yangtze-Huaihe revier basins and the rainy season in North China. These three rainy periods and regions are also the occurrence periods and places of associated heavy rainfalls. Therefore, the heavy rainfalls in China are neither different from the tropical type of heavy rainfalls in the Indian monsoon region nor from the mid-latitude type of heavy rainfalls. The heavy rainfalls in China occur under the condition of strong interaction between the moist tropical monsoonal flow and cold mid- and high-latitude air, thus resulting in extremely high intensity long-persistence duration and very wide precipitation regions. Since early part of the 20th century. Chinese meteorologists began to investigate the occurrence conditions and mechanisms, and with a long-term effort, significand progress has been made in the theory of heavy rainfalls, and analysis and prediction of heavy rainfalls. The present paper will mainly address this aspect, including four problems:(1) the climatic characteristics of the heavy rainfalls in China, (2) the developmental process of the study of the theoretical aspects concerning the heavy rainfalls in China, (3) major achievements of occurrence mechanisms for heavy rainfalls in China and (4) the future chanllenge for the theory of heavy rainfall in China in terms of the convective scale.

     

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