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中国暴雨的天气学研究进展

Progress of synoptic studies for heavy rain in China

  • 摘要: 自1949年建国至今70 a来,我国气象工作者对中国暴雨的特点和规律等做了大量研究并取得了丰硕成果。本文主要就中国暴雨的特点、环流形势、天气系统、形成机制及其诊断和预报方法等方面的研究进展做一简要回顾。研究表明:(1)中国暴雨具有明显的地域性、季节性和阶段性特点。东部地区有三个季节性大雨带,自南向北移动,具有明显跳跃性。大范围降水的环流形势有稳定经向型、稳定纬向型及中低纬相互作用型等基本类型。各地区暴雨又各有独特的典型形势。(2)西风带长波槽、阻塞高压、副热带高压和热带环流等行星尺度系统以及东亚夏季风系统与我国夏季的降水有密切关系。低槽、气旋、静止锋、高空冷涡、低空切变线、低涡和高低空急流等中纬度天气系统在大部分强降水过程中扮演重要角色。台风是最强的暴雨天气系统,大部分近海省市最强降水均与台风相关。(3)中尺度系统与暴雨关系密切,特别是中尺度对流系统,通常是暴雨的直接制造者或载体。本文讨论了基于大气动力学和热力学理论的各种暴雨诊断分析方法,通过诊断分析使暴雨研究客观化和定量化,有助于深入认识暴雨形成机理和改进各种时效的暴雨现代天气预报,最后对如何进一步深入进行暴雨研究的问题做了思考和展望。

     

    Abstract: During the past 70 years since 1949, Chinese meteorologists have made a great deal of researches on heavy rain in China and gained huge achievements. This article is a brief review about the categories, the large scale background synoptic conditions, the influencing weather systems in various scales, the physical mechanisms, and the methodology of diagnosis and forecasting of the heavy rain in China. The researches reveal that:(1) The heavy rain processes in China have distinct regional, seasonal and time-phased features. There are three seasonal large scale rain bands in east China, moving from south to north and with distinct jumping in locations. The large scale circulation patterns include steady meridional type, steady zonal type and middle-low latitude interactional type etc., and different areas have different special situations of circulation. (2) The summer precipitation in China is closely related to the westerly long waves, blocking-high pressures, subtropical high and tropical circulations as well as the East Asian summer monsoon systems etc. The upper air troughs, surface cyclones, fronts, upper air cold vortexes, low level shear lines and cyclonic vortexes as well as high and low level jet streams etc. are the major synoptic and subsynoptic systems playing important roles in most heavy precipitation processes. Typhoon is the strongest heavy rain system, and most of heavy rain processes occurred in near-coast provinces of China are closely related to typhoon. (3) Mesoscale systems, especially mesoscale convective systems are the direct producers and carriers of heavy rain phenomena. The article discussed the heavy rain diagnosis methods based on the atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics theories. The diagnosis analyses make the heavy rain studies objectively and quantitatively. It will be helpful for deepening understanding the formation mechanisms of heavy rain and improving the heavy rain forecasting in different ranges. At the end of the article a thinking and outlook about the heavy rain studies in future are presented.

     

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