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高原低涡、切变线暴雨研究新进展

Recent advances in the research of heavy rain associated with vortices and shear lines come from the Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 在引发中国东部夏季降水的天气系统中,高原低值系统扮演着十分重要的角色,其中高原低涡与高原切变线对强降水的协同作用是高原天气影响的一种常见样式,预报员将其称为低涡切变暴雨。本文回顾了高原低涡、切变线及其暴雨的研究历史和当前研究所取得的最新成果,重点探讨了人工智能应用、诊断计算、动力理论以及数值模式等多方法研究高原切变线与高原低涡的关系、相互作用过程以及诱发暴雨机理等科学问题,并基于低涡、切变线暴雨的最新研究成果和相关理论方法、技术手段的发展应用趋势,提出这一研究领域值得关注的一些新方向。由于目前对这两类几何形状迥异但物理属性相近的高原低值天气系统关系的认知仍存较大分歧,两者相互作用进而引发高影响天气过程的物理机理尚不十分清楚,高原低涡、切变线气候学统计结果的差异还相当明显。因此,对这一研究领域的深入探索与交叉拓展,不仅对推动青藏高原天气、气候影响的理论发展有重要科学意义,对高原及下游灾害性天气、气候业务能力的提升亦有较大应用推广价值。

     

    Abstract: The low weather system over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a very important role in the heavy rainfall of the eastern China in summer, the symbiosis between the Tibetan Plateau vortex (TPV) and the Tibetan Plateau shear line (TPSL) is one common phenomena, it is called as vortex-shear rainstorm by forecaster. We review the research history and new progresses of the TPVs and TPSLs induced heavy rainfall, mainly discuss some scientific problems such as artificial-intelligence applications, synoptic diagnostic calculation, dynamic theory and numerical model in the study of relationship between TPSL and TPV, interaction process and mechanism induced heavy rain. According to the latest research achievement of and the new trends of related theoretical method and technical tool in the study of vortex-shear rainstorm, we propose several notable new research directions in the field of this study. At present, there are still great divergences in the understanding of the relationship between these two types of low systems with different geometrical shapes but similar physical attributes. The physical mechanism of their interaction leading to high-impact weather processes is not very clear, and the differences between climatological statistical results of TPVs and TPSLs are quite obvious. Therefore, the in-depth exploration and cross-development of this research field not only has important scientific significance for promoting the theoretical development of weather and climate impacts on the TP, but also has higher values of application and generalization for improving the operational ability of disaster weather and climate in the plateau and downstream areas.

     

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