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中国暖区暴雨的研究进展

A review of the warm-sector rainstorms in China

  • 摘要: 暖区暴雨是中国大气科学界的一个研究热点,由于其天气尺度斜压性强迫弱、环境大气热动力不稳定性强,以及特殊的地形和海陆热力差异的外强迫作用,暴雨对流系统触发机制复杂,暴雨突发性、局地性特征明显。目前全球业务数值预报模式、中尺度数值模式对暖区暴雨的预报能力十分有限。20世纪80年代以来对华南暖区暴雨的天气学特征进行了深入分析,并对多地区暖区对流系统的发展特征进行了总结,指出暖区极端暴雨与稳定的线状对流系统的发展有密切关系。近年来通过若干大型科学试验,对造成华南暖区暴雨的对流系统特征、边界层物理特征、降雨云物理过程有了更为深入的认识,其中关于边界层急流、华南沿海地面冷池边界等中尺度特征分析进一步深化了暖区暴雨对流触发机制研究。本文回顾了近40年暖区暴雨部分研究成果,针对多地区暖区暴雨的天气学特征、暖区暴雨与低空急流的关系、暖区暴雨中尺度对流系统的发展特征等问题进行了总结,并提出需要进一步深入研究的科学问题。

     

    Abstract: Many research focused on the characteristics of warm-sector rainstorms in South China during past decades. The rainstorms occurring in warm sectors show abrupt and significantly localized characteristics. The triggering mechanism is complex due to weak synoptic baroclinic forcing, strong environmental instability, as well as external forcing including special topography features and land-sea difference. Nowdays the forecast skills of numerical weather prediction models are still limited. The synoptic characteristics of warm-sector rainstorm in South China have been studied since 1980s, and the development characteristics of convective systems in the warm region have been summarized. It is revealed that the extreme precipitation events in the warm region were closely related to the development of the quasi-stationary linear convection systems. Recently, through several scientific experiments in South China, further scientific understanding has achieved on the convective process, boundary layer physics and cloud physics related to the development of warm-sector rainstorms in South China. Based on the observational analysis of boundary level jet and surface cool pool evolution near coastal area of South China, the convective triggering mechanism has been more clearly understood than before. The studies on the torrential warm-sector rainstorms in recent 40 years are reviewed in this article. The synoptic condition and dynamics of warm-sector rainstorms are analyzed, such as the first proposing of the concept for warm-sector rainstorms in different areas and its multi-scale synoptic characteristics, the relationship between the rainstorm in warm sector and Low Level Jet(LLJ), the development characteristics of meso-scale convective system(MCS). Finally, scientific problems are proposed for further studies.

     

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