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李显风, 张玮, 黄少平, 邓卫华, 周雪莹. 2020: 江西省气象-水文-雷达小时雨量信息融合试验结果分析. 暴雨灾害, 39(3): 276-284. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.03.008
引用本文: 李显风, 张玮, 黄少平, 邓卫华, 周雪莹. 2020: 江西省气象-水文-雷达小时雨量信息融合试验结果分析. 暴雨灾害, 39(3): 276-284. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.03.008
LI Xianfeng, ZHANG Wei, HUANG Shaoping, DENG Weihua, ZHOU Xueying. 2020: Analysis of fusion test results on hourly precipitation from meteorological and hydrological stations and radar. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(3): 276-284. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.03.008
Citation: LI Xianfeng, ZHANG Wei, HUANG Shaoping, DENG Weihua, ZHOU Xueying. 2020: Analysis of fusion test results on hourly precipitation from meteorological and hydrological stations and radar. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(3): 276-284. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.03.008

江西省气象-水文-雷达小时雨量信息融合试验结果分析

Analysis of fusion test results on hourly precipitation from meteorological and hydrological stations and radar

  • 摘要: 利用2019年5-6月江西省气象站、水文站降水数据与江西省雷达估测降水产品(QPE),采用多重网格变分分析方法(STMAS),开展1 km×1 km逐小时气象、水文、雷达雨量信息融合试验,并对试验结果进行了分析评估。结果表明:三种来源的观测降水具有相似的空间分布特征,其强降水落区、降水分布形态高度一致;与观测降水相比,不同融合试验结果具有一致的变化趋势,但均存在一定程度的低估,而融合了水文站降水的试验结果,其低估程度明显改善;独立检验结果显示,融合了水文站降水的试验结果在各降水量级的准确性均有明显改进,其相关系数提高了9.2%,均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别降低了14.3%和12.1%;进一步融合水文站降水后,对不同地形条件下的降水融合效果均有显著改善,海拔高度在800 m以上的地区,其相关系数提高8.8%,均方根误差降低14.1%。

     

    Abstract: Based on the precipitation data from the meteorological and hydrological stations and the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) from radars over Jiangxi between May and June in 2019, we have made a fusion test of hourly precipitation from the meteorological and hydrological stations and by radars with 1 km×1 km resolution by using the space-time multiscale analysis system (STMAS), and made an analysis and assessment of fusion test results. The results show that the precipitation detected by meteorological stations, hydrological stations and radars has a similar spatial distribution. It is found that the severe precipitation zones and the patterns of precipitation distribution are very consistent. Comparing with the precipitation observed, the different fusion test results have a consistent variation tendency, but all are the underestimating to a certain extent. Those fused precipitation from the hydrological stations have a significant improvement in underestimation. The independent verification results indicate that the test results fused precipitation from hydrological stations have an obvious improvement in the accuracy of different level of precipitation, whose correlation coefficient increases by 9.2%, and root mean square error and mean absolute error decreases by 14.3% and 12.1%, respectively. After further fusing precipitation from hydrological stations, precipitation fusion results of different height areas are significantly improved, especially in the areas of elevation greater than 800 m whose correlation coefficient increases by 8.8% and root mean square error decreases by 14.1%.

     

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