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于淑婷, 罗亚丽, 李建. 2020: 1982—2016年云南省不同强度降水气候态及其变化. 暴雨灾害, 39(4): 363-371. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.04.006
引用本文: 于淑婷, 罗亚丽, 李建. 2020: 1982—2016年云南省不同强度降水气候态及其变化. 暴雨灾害, 39(4): 363-371. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.04.006
YU Shuting, LUO Yali, LI Jian. 2020: Climatology and changes of hourly precipitation with various intensities in Yunnan Province from 1982 to 2016. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(4): 363-371. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.04.006
Citation: YU Shuting, LUO Yali, LI Jian. 2020: Climatology and changes of hourly precipitation with various intensities in Yunnan Province from 1982 to 2016. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(4): 363-371. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.04.006

1982—2016年云南省不同强度降水气候态及其变化

Climatology and changes of hourly precipitation with various intensities in Yunnan Province from 1982 to 2016

  • 摘要: 基于1982—2016年云南省67个气象站逐小时降水资料,利用百分位阈值法定义极端小时降水(大于第95百分位)、强小时降水(第80至95百分位之间)、中等-弱小时降水(小于第80百分位),并分析其35 a平均气候态和变化趋势。结果表明:(1)云南省年降水强度大值中心位于南部,年降水频次大值中心位于西北部,分别对应年降水量大值和次大值中心。云南省降水主要集中在夏秋季,同时云南省西北部存在春汛期,该地区2—4月降水频次高、强度大、降水量多。(2)全省极端小时降水、强小时降水的阈值表现为从南向北、从西向东减小。(3)过去35 a全省大部分地区年降水量和小时降水频次均表现为下降趋势,且随着降水强度等级降低而增强,秋季最为明显,而小时降水强度表现为增强趋势,夏秋两季极端小时降水的增强趋势通过显著性检验。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data from 67 national-level weather stations over Yunnan Province from 1982 to 2016, three hourly-precipitation types with varying intensities, namely, the extreme (above the 95th percentile), heavy (between the 80th and 95th percentile), and moderate-to-weak (below the 80th percentile) hourly precipitation types, are defined using the percentile method, and their 35 year climatological means and long-term changes are investigated. Results are as follows. (1) The high-value center of mean precipitation intensity is located in southern Yunnan and the high-value center of occurrence frequency is in the northwest, which correspond to the areas with the highest and second highest annual precipitation amount, respectively. Precipitation in Yunnan Province is produced mainly in summer and autumn. Meanwhile, there is a spring rainy season in northwest Yunnan that is characterized by high occurrence frequency, strong intensity, and large precipitation amount during February to April. (2) The thresholds of both the extreme and the heavy hourly precipitation types decrease progressively from south to north and from west to east. (3) In the past 35 year, the annual amount and occurrence frequency of each precipitation type in most areas of the province show a decreasing trend, being most evident in autumn, which weakens with the precipitation intensity. In contrast, the hourly precipitation intensity presents an upward trend that is statistically significant in the extreme precipitation type during summer and autumn.

     

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