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漆梁波, 吴君婧, 施春红. 2020: 一次江淮特大暴雨过程的预报着眼点反思. 暴雨灾害, 39(6): 647-657. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.06.013
引用本文: 漆梁波, 吴君婧, 施春红. 2020: 一次江淮特大暴雨过程的预报着眼点反思. 暴雨灾害, 39(6): 647-657. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.06.013
QI Liangbo, WU Junjing, SHI Chunhong. 2020: Rethink on forecast focus of a torrential rainfall event at Jianghuai region. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(6): 647-657. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.06.013
Citation: QI Liangbo, WU Junjing, SHI Chunhong. 2020: Rethink on forecast focus of a torrential rainfall event at Jianghuai region. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(6): 647-657. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.06.013

一次江淮特大暴雨过程的预报着眼点反思

Rethink on forecast focus of a torrential rainfall event at Jianghuai region

  • 摘要: 2020年7月18—19日,江淮地区出现一次特大暴雨过程,欧洲中期天气预报中心全球确定性预报模式(以下简称EC模式)、华东区域数值模式(以下简称华东模式)和国家气象中心Grapes高分辨区域模式(3 km分辨率,以下简称G3模式)预报的暴雨落区均明显偏北,且降水强度偏弱。通过对模式的风场及降水预报进行检验发现:模式天气形势预报的优劣,很多时候与模式的降水预报优劣是直接相关的,尤其是天气形势中的中低层风场,很容易受模式中降水潜热反馈过程的影响,导致错误的预报订正指引;比较而言,模式预报的高层流场,受潜热反馈过程影响较小,是值得在天气分析环节中加以重视的预报着眼点;此外,对于由中小尺度天气系统传播所致的大暴雨或特大暴雨,分辨率更高的区域模式预报结果可能具有更好的预报参考性,也是今后类似暴雨预报过程中应该重视的着眼点之一。

     

    Abstract: Jianghuai region was hit by a torrential rainfall event on 18th-19th July, 2020. Numerical prediction models from ECMWF(hereinafter as EC model), East China Regional Meteorological Center/CMA(hereinafter as Huadong model), National Meteorological Center/CMA (3km resolution, hereinafter as G3 model) all present obvious northerly-offset in heavy rainfall area forecasts, and with weaker rainfall amounts as well. After detailed verification and analysis on models' wind fields and precipitation forecasts, it is founded that the performance of a model's synoptic situation forecasts are closely related to the model's precipitation forecast in most of times, especially for middle and low level wind fields which are easily affected by the model's precipitation latent heating process and thus would present wrong revision instruction to duty forecasters. Comparatively speaking, a model's forecast on high-level wind field is likely not affected by the model's precipitation latent heating process, which could be a reference deserving more attention during synoptic analysis. Furthermore, for a torrential rainfall caused by propagation of meso-or smaller scale weather systems, regional numerical model with higher resolution would be a better reference for forecast decision during similar heavy rainfall events.

     

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