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刘凑华, 林建, 曹勇, 代刊, 郭云谦, 唐健. 2021: 网格降水预报时间降尺度方法改进. 暴雨灾害, 40(6): 617-625. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.06.006
引用本文: 刘凑华, 林建, 曹勇, 代刊, 郭云谦, 唐健. 2021: 网格降水预报时间降尺度方法改进. 暴雨灾害, 40(6): 617-625. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.06.006
LIU Couhua, LIN Jian, CAO Yong, DAI Kan, GUO Yunqian, TANG Jian. 2021: Improvement of time downscaling method for grid precipitation forecast. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 40(6): 617-625. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.06.006
Citation: LIU Couhua, LIN Jian, CAO Yong, DAI Kan, GUO Yunqian, TANG Jian. 2021: Improvement of time downscaling method for grid precipitation forecast. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 40(6): 617-625. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2021.06.006

网格降水预报时间降尺度方法改进

Improvement of time downscaling method for grid precipitation forecast

  • 摘要: 网格降水预报时间降尺度的目标是将业务上准确率较高的24 h精细化网格降水主客观订正预报结果降尺度到更细的时间分辨率上,以保证不同时间间隔精细化降水预报的准确率和总量的一致性。针对目前业务中降尺度方法以数值模式预报的单点降水量时间序列为比重实现对逐个网格点的预报拆分,拆分后雨带范围偏大、强度偏小和移动不合理等问题,增加位置订正、动态重构和频率匹配等算法来改进时间降尺度的效果。基于ECMWF模式预报时空演变,以国家气象中心2020年7月18日20时24 h网格降水预报拆分成逐1 h预报为实例,阐述了不同算法步骤的作用,并选取2020年1月1日—12月31日逐日08时起报的逐24 h网格降水预报进行时间降尺度批量对比试验。个例分析和批量试验结果表明,改进后的时间降尺度方法可提升逐小时网格降水预报的合理性和准确率。位置订正算法用于订正数值模式预报同网格预报之间的位置偏差,动态重构算法用于减少拆分后雨带中心移速和强度的不合理波动,而频率匹配则用于订正拆分后雨带范围偏大和强度偏弱的问题。改进后的逐小时降水预报各等级ETSBIAS评分均有所改善,尤其是对20 mm以上的短时强降水改进效果显著。

     

    Abstract: The goal of time downscaling for grid precipitation forecast is to downscale the 24 h refined grid precipitation forecast with high accuracy to a finer time resolution, so as to ensure the accuracy and the consistency of total amount of refined precipitation forecast at different time intervals. At present, the single point precipitation time series of numerical model forecast is used as the proportion to downscale the forecast aimed at every one grid. In order to solve the problems in existing methods in the time downscaling procedure, such as too large rain range, too small intensity and unreasonable moving speed, the position correction, dynamic reconstruction and frequency matching algorithms are added to improve the effect of time-downscaling. Based on the evolution of ECMWF model forecasts, taking the time downscaling of 24 h grid precipitation forecast field produced by National Meteorological Centre at 20∶00 BT on 18 July 2020 as an example, the function of different algorithm steps are illustrated. Furthermore, the daily 24 h grid precipitation forecasts starting from 08∶00 BT between 1 January and 31 December 2020 are selected for batch test of time downscaling. Case analysis and batch test results show that the new added algorithm steps can improve the rationality and accuracy of hourly grid precipitation prediction. Among them, the position correction is used to correct the position from the numerical model forecast to the grid forecast, the dynamic reconstruction is used to reduce the unreasonable fluctuation of the movement and intensity of the downscaled rain belt, and the frequency matching is used to correct the problem of the larger range and weaker intensity of the downscaled rain belt. The ETS and BIAS scores of improved forecasts are improved, especially for the short-term heavy rainfall above 20 mm.

     

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