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胡婧婷, 陈良吕, 夏宇. 2022: 对流尺度集合预报系统中地面要素释用产品的预报性能分析. 暴雨灾害, 41(2): 204-214. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.02.011
引用本文: 胡婧婷, 陈良吕, 夏宇. 2022: 对流尺度集合预报系统中地面要素释用产品的预报性能分析. 暴雨灾害, 41(2): 204-214. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.02.011
HU Jingting, CHEN Lianglü, XIA Yu. 2022: Research on the application of surface elements ensemble forecast products of a convective scale ensemble prediction system. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(2): 204-214. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.02.011
Citation: HU Jingting, CHEN Lianglü, XIA Yu. 2022: Research on the application of surface elements ensemble forecast products of a convective scale ensemble prediction system. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(2): 204-214. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.02.011

对流尺度集合预报系统中地面要素释用产品的预报性能分析

Research on the application of surface elements ensemble forecast products of a convective scale ensemble prediction system

  • 摘要: 为了研究不同集合预报释用产品对重庆地区气温和降水预报的性能差异,基于重庆市气象局业务运行的对流尺度集合预报系统,对2020年全年的24 h累计降水和2 m气温的控制预报、集合平均预报和集合分位数预报及24 h累计降水的概率匹配平均预报等地面要素集合预报释用产品预报性能的差异及其时空分布特征进行了综合对比分析。结果表明:(1) 各集合预报释用产品对降水的预报性能随预报时效的增加而降低;当预报时效一致时,集合平均预报、概率匹配平均预报、60%及以上分位数产品对降水的预报皆优于控制预报,90%分位数对降水的预报能力优于其他分位数产品。(2) 在夏秋两季,各产品的预报结果差异较大,90%分位数预报、概率匹配平均预报和集合平均预报效果较好。(3) 控制预报、集合平均预报、概率匹配平均预报和90%分位数预报的SEEPS评分都呈现出川东一带较高、渝东北和渝东南较低的空间分布特征,说明预报能力可能与地形有一定关系。(4) 对于不同时效的气温预报,总体上看,集合平均预报效果最佳,集合分位数产品中70%分位数预报效果最佳。

     

    Abstract: In order to study the performance differences of different ensemble forecast products for temperature and precipitation forecasts in Chongqing, based on the Chongqing Convective-scale Ensemble Prediction System (CQCEPS) which has been operationally implemented, a comprehensive comparison and analysis are carried out for the differences as well as temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in the forecast performance of ensemble forecast application products of surface elements such as the control forecast of 24 h cumulative precipitation and 2 m temperature, ensemble mean forecast and ensemble quantile forecast for the whole year of 2020, as well as the probability matched mean forecast of 24 h cumulative precipitation. The results show that (1) the precipitation prediction performance of each ensemble forecast product decreases with the increase of predicting lead time. When predicting lead time is consistent, ensemble mean forecast, probability matched mean forecast, and 60% and higher quantile forecasts are better than control forecast. The 90% quantile forecast is the best among quantile forecast products. (2) In summer and autumn, the forecast results of each product are quite different, and the 90% quantile forecast, probability matched mean forecast and ensemble mean forecast are better than others. (3) The SEEPS scores of control forecast, ensemble mean forecast, probability matched mean forecast and the 90% quantile forecast show higher accuracy in eastern Sichuan and poorer accuracy in the southeast and northeast of Chongqing, indicating that the prediction performance may have a certain relationship with the terrain. (4) For temperature forecasts with different lead times, overall, the ensemble mean forecast performs the best among all of the prediction products, and the 70% quantile forecast performs the best among all quantile products.

     

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