复杂山地下引发特大暴雨的准静止MCS观测分析
Analysis of quasi-stationary MCS causing extreme torrential rain event under complex mountains in Southwest Hubei
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摘要: 2020年7月26日鄂西南山地建始峡谷内出现特大暴雨过程, 准静止中尺度对流系统(MCS)是特大暴雨的主要贡献者。利用常规观测资料和地面区域站观测资料, 结合雷达资料和ERA5再分析资料等, 分析了准静止MCS的环流背景及其演变、形成机制。结果表明: (1)受东移南下的大陆高压、蒙古冷涡与稳定副热带高压的共同影响, MCS在副热带高压北部、低层辐合线附近形成, 稳定少动的中低层辐合线和低涡前侧偏南急流为MCS的发展、维持提供了有利的环境条件。(2)由于后向传播与平流几乎相抵消, MCS在建始峡谷表现出后向传播的准静止特征, 其传播方向与峡谷走向一致, 先后经历了准静止后向传播和准静止合并两个阶段。(3)在建始峡谷和恩施"喇叭口"复杂地形下, 冷出流与持续加强、下沉的低空偏南急流相互作用对MCS的形成和发展有明显影响。低空急流在持续弱冷出流和迎风坡上被迫抬升, 在山前形成稳定的抬升条件, 是准静止后向传播维持的主要原因; 低空急流和建始南部地形对冷池的阻挡作用以及对流单体的北上合并, 是准静止合并阶段形成的原因。(4)复杂地形对MCS的演变具有重要作用, 峡谷风效应和迎风坡动力抬升作用使低空急流和辐合上升运动加强, 导致MCS增强发展; 建始峡谷北部斜坡地形引导冷出流快速下山与山前迎风坡抬升的偏南气流形成辐合区, 使得MCS后向传播加快; 建始峡谷南部γ中尺度地形对下山冷出流的阻挡使其南压缓慢, 造成MCS传播速度减缓而呈准静止状态。Abstract: An extreme torrential rain event occurred in the Jianshi Canyon in the mountainous area of Southwest Hubei on 26 July 2020, which was mainly caused by quasi-stationary mesoscale convection system (MCS). Using conventional observations, the data from regional automatic weather stations, radar data and ERA5 reanalysis data, we have performed analysis on the atmospheric circulation and the evolution and formation mechanism of quasi-static MCS in this event. Results are as follows. (1) Affected by the continental high and the Mongolian cold vortex moving eastward and southward and the stable subtropical high, the MCS forms in the north of the subtropical high and near the low-level convergence line. The mid-and low-level convergence line and the southerly jet in front of the low vortex provide favorable environmental conditions for the development and maintenance of the MCS. (2) The MCS in the Jianshi Canyon shows the characteristics of quasi-stationary with backward propagation, whose direction is consistent with the canyon trend, and it experienced two stages: quasi-stationary backward propagation and quasi-stationary merging. (3) Under the complex terrain of Jianshi Canyon and Enshi "bell mouth", the interaction between cold outflow and continuously strengthened and sinking low-level southerly jet has a significant effect on the formation and development of the MCS. The low-level jet is forced to rise on the windward slope for sustained weak cold outflow, forming a stable lifting condition in front of the mountain, which is the main reason for the maintenance of quasi-stationary backward propagation. The blocking effect of the low-level jet and the terrain in the south of Jianshi on the cold pool, and the merging of convective cells moving northward, are the reasons for the formation of quasi-stationary merging of the MCS. (4) The complex terrain plays an important role in the evolution of the MCS. The canyon wind effect and the topographic lifting effect of windward slope result in the enhanced development of the MCS. The cold outflow guided by the slope terrain of Jianshi Canyon quickly descends the mountain to form the convergence zone with the southerly lifted by the windward slope at front of the mountain, which speeds up the backward propagation of the MCS. The γ-mesoscale topography in the south of Jianshi Canyon blocks the downhill cold outflow and makes it move slowly southward, resulting in the propagation speed of the MCS to slow down and show a quasi-stationary state.