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两个超级单体导致的冀豫交界区极端下击暴流预警分析

Analysis of early warning of extreme downbursts induced by two supercell storms in the border area between Hebei and Henan Provinces

  • 摘要: 2021年7月31日16-22时冀豫交界区出现了由多个超级单体风暴造成的强对流天气过程, 其中生命史最长的两个超级单体风暴(以下分别简称邯郸超级单体和濮阳超级单体)先后影响河北南部和河南北部, 导致5次极端下击暴流事件。本文利用常规观测资料、区域自动站观测资料及多普勒天气雷达资料, 并基于超级单体致灾下击暴流雷达回波预警指标, 分析了上述5次极端下击暴流导致的冀豫交界区雷暴大风的雷达预警效果。结果表明: (1)5次极端下击暴流事件中, 超级单体强回波伸展高度、中层径向辐合、低仰角径向速度大值区等雷达回波特征量化值均满足致灾下击暴流超级单体雷达回波预警指标, 平均每次极端下击暴流前会出现12个与雷暴大风相关的回波特征, 且最极端下击暴流出现前与雷暴大风相关的回波特征均最为显著或其特征量增至最强, 其中与对流风暴下沉气流和地面大风直接相关的特征可提前10~37 min预警极端下击暴流。(2)两个超级单体风暴导致的首次极端下击暴流前均出现了反射率因子核、中气旋核和中气旋底高下降的特征, 对极端下击暴流能提前19 min和22 min预警。(3)邯郸超级单体为典型的孤立超级单体风暴, 濮阳超级单体为镶嵌在多单体中的超级单体风暴, 前者比后者的回波结构清晰, 更易判识, 相关回波特征或特征量对其产生的下击暴流预警效果也更好。(4)超级单体风暴维持期间可导致多次极端下击暴流, 其出现后(特别是在减弱阶段)仍需持续关注相关回波特征变化。

     

    Abstract: A severe convective weather event that was caused by multiple supercell storms occurred in the border area between the Hebei and Henan provinces at 16-22 Beijing Time of 31 July 2021. The two of these supercell storms (hereinafter referred to as Handan supercell and Puyang supercell, respectively) with the longest life time affected successively southern Hebei and northern Henan, resulting in five extreme downbursts. Using the observational data from regional automatic weather stations and the Doppler weather radar data, we performed the analysis of the radar early warning effect of thunderstorm gale induced by these five extreme downbursts in the border area based on the radar echo early warning index of the downbursts induced by supercell storms. The main results are as follow: (1) The radar echo characteristics such as refectivity core height, middle altitude radial convergence, and radial velocity at the lowest elevation for the supercell storms in the five extreme downbursts all meet the criterias of early warning. On average, twelve echo features related to thunderstorm gale, of which the strength reach maximum before the strongest downbursts, appeared before each extreme downburst. Among these features, the ones related to convective storm downdraft and near-surface strong wind can be used as the warning signals 10-37 minutes in advance for the downbursts. (2) The refectivity factor core, mesocyclonecore, and mesocyclone bottom height were all decreased before the first extreme downburst induced by the two supercell storms, which may be used as the warning signals 19-22 minutes in advance, respectively. (3) The Handan supercell storm is a classic isolated supercell, while the Puyang supercell storm is embeded in multicells. The former has the clearer echo structure and is easier to be identified than the latter. The relevant echo features or characteristic quantities are also better be used for early warning of downburst. (4) One supercell storm can bring several extreme downbursts during its lifetime, so it is necessary to pay attention to the changes of relevant radar echo characteristics after its occurrence, especially in its dissipating stage.

     

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