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徐同, 杨玉华, 谭燕, 殷岳, 王琴. 2022: 2018年三个华东登陆台风暴雨数值预报结果的空间检验. 暴雨灾害, 41(4): 365-374. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.001
引用本文: 徐同, 杨玉华, 谭燕, 殷岳, 王琴. 2022: 2018年三个华东登陆台风暴雨数值预报结果的空间检验. 暴雨灾害, 41(4): 365-374. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.001
XU Tong, YANG Yuhua, TAN Yan, YIN Yue, WANG Qin. 2022: Spatial verification of multi-model forecast of three landing typhoons induced rainstorm in East China in 2018. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(4): 365-374. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.001
Citation: XU Tong, YANG Yuhua, TAN Yan, YIN Yue, WANG Qin. 2022: Spatial verification of multi-model forecast of three landing typhoons induced rainstorm in East China in 2018. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(4): 365-374. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.001

2018年三个华东登陆台风暴雨数值预报结果的空间检验

Spatial verification of multi-model forecast of three landing typhoons induced rainstorm in East China in 2018

  • 摘要: 采用基于对象的诊断评估方法(MODE)评估上海区域中尺度模式(SMS-WARMS)、欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率预报系统(ECMWF)和全球预报系统(GFS)模式对2018年三个华东沿海登陆台风暴雨的空间预报性能,结果表明:(1) MODE空间检验方法相对传统检验方法评估台风降水更具优势,可通过质心距离、面积、轴角等多种空间检验指标给出更多反映模式预报误差的诊断信息,有利于预报员进行预报订正。(2) MODE检验结果显示,SMS-WARMS模式对三个登陆台风50 mm以上强降水的空间预报技巧总体优于ECMWF和GFS全球模式,100 mm以上强降水预报优势更为明显。(3)区域模式对台风降水的预报强度强于全球模式,体现出对台风极值降水预报的优势。(4) SMS-WARMS模式存在对台风强降水预报范围偏大的特征,ECMWF和GFS模式则相反,对强降水预报范围偏小。

     

    Abstract: The Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) is applied to evaluate the SMS-WARMS, ECMWF, and GFS models for spatial verification of their performance of rainstorm forecast for three landing typhoons in East China in 2018. The results show that: (1) The MODE method is more advanced than the traditional method in typhoon precipitation verification. It can provide more diagnostic information to reflect the prediction error of the model through various verification indices such as centroid distance, area, and axis angle etc. (2) The results of MODE indicate that the SMS-WARMS prediction is superior to the ECMWF and GFS predictions in terms of spatial predictions of heavy rainfall over 50 mm for the three landing typhoons, particularly for the rainfall over 100 mm. (3) The predicted intensity of rainfall by the regional model is stronger than that by the global models, reflecting the advantages of regional model in predicting typhoon heavy rainfall. (4) The SMS-WARMS model tends to over-predict the area of typhoon heavy rainfall, while ECMWF and GFS tend to under-predict.

     

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