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一次台风倒槽暴雨的GPS 同化试验

A case study of assimilating GPS sounding profiles in a typhoon inverted trough rainstorm

  • 摘要: 选取2012 年8 月9—10 日江苏东北部地区一次台风倒槽特大暴雨天气过程,利用WRF 中尺度模式进行数值模拟,在此基础上进行常规观测资料、GPS 探空廓线资料的三维变分同化试验,并对试验结果进行对比分析。为了更客观地检验不同方案的模拟效果,对降水采用TS 评分检验和预报偏差分析。结果表明:单独同化常规观测数据可以改善降水的落区;GPS 探空廓线数据水平分辨率低,仅同化GPS 探空廓线数据并不能有效改善模拟效果;同时同化常规观测资料和GPS 探空廓线数据可以有效弥补常规数据精度不高、GPS 数据水平分辨率低的缺点,无论是对降水的落区还是强度都有很好的改善。

     

    Abstract: A typhoon inverted trough rainstorm on August 9 to 10, 2012 in northeast Jiangsu is studied in this paper. The WRF mesoscalemodel is used for the numerical simulation of this storm. GTS observation data and GPS sounding profiles are assimilated in the initial field torun three groups of three-dimensional variational data assimilation experiments. Detailed analysis was carried out to the simulated data. Toobjectively analyze the impact of assimilating these data on precipitation in the experiments,TS score and the precipitation forecast deviationswere analyzed. The results showed that (1) assimilation of GTS observational data can improve the precipitation area, (2) the GPS soundingprofile assimilation does not effectively improve the simulation results, and (3) assimilating the above two kind of data can effectively improvethe forecast of precipitation area and intensity.

     

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