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2013 年7 月1 日河北宁晋极端短时强降水成因研究

Investigation of the cause of an extreme flash-rain event in Ningjin County on 1 July 2013

  • 摘要: 2013 年7 月1 日午后至夜间,华北出现一次区域性暴雨和局地大暴雨过程。局地极端降水出现在河北省邢台市宁晋县四芝兰镇,过程雨量409 mm,其中当日17—19 时连续2 h 雨量超过100 mm。利用常规高空和地面观测资料、NCEP 再分析资料和石家庄新一代天气雷达资料,探讨了宁晋极端短时强降水的形成原因。主要结论是: (1) 低槽、冷锋、副热带高压及其外围低涡切变线为其主要影响系统,海南附近台风远距离影响加强了水汽自南向北的输送,半定常的地面辐合切变线对新生对流的触发和已有对流的维持及加强起到重要作用;(2) 宁晋最强降水期间,其上空具有较强的垂直风切变,有利于高度组织化的对流系统发展;(3) 对流系统的后向传播使回波主体移动缓慢、持续时间长,而回波强度大和雨强很强,则导致四芝兰镇极端强降水,此外,具有弱中气旋的超级单体相对较长时间的影响使其对四芝兰镇强降水具有重要贡献;(4) 产生极端降水的对流系统属于高质心发展强烈的大陆强对流型,而非更易导致强降水的低质心系统。同时,针对众多学者研究北京“7.21”特大暴雨得到的一些结论进行了进一步探讨和验证。

     

    Abstract: On 1 July 2013, a regional heavy rain and local extremely heavy rain event occurred in northern China, in which local extreme rainfall was observed at Sizhilan town, Ningjin County, Xingtai city, Hebei province, with total rainfall 409 mm during this event. The hourly rainfall is over 100 mm for successive two hours form 17:00 BT to 19:00 BT 1 July 2013. Based on routine upper-level and surface observations,NCEP reanalysis data and Doppler weather radar data, we investigate the cause of the extreme flash-rain event in Ningjin. The main results are as follows. (1) Upper trough, surface cold front, and subtropical high together with the vortex shear line in periphery of it are the main influencing systems that induced this event. Additionally, the typhoon near Hainan influenced the rainfall remotely resulting in increased water vapor transfer from south to north. The quasi-stationary convergence shear line at the ground plays an important role in triggering new convections as well as maintaining and strengthening older ones. (2) During the most significant precipitating period in Ningjin, the strong vertical wind shear over it favors the production and development of well-organized convective systems. (3) The backward propagation of convective systems makes the radar echoes passing through the Ningjin County very slowly, and then strong echoes and large rainfall intensity lead to excessive rainfall in Sizhilan town. In addition, the relatively long time effects of a supercell with weak mesocyclone over the ain area have a clear contribution to the excessive rainfall in Sizhilan. 4) The convective system triggering extreme rainfall belongs to the strong convection type with high centroid rather than low centroid system, which often tends to originate severe precipitation. Meanwhile, we further discussed and validated some findings obtained by many scholars who have studied the“7.21”rainstorm event in Beijing.

     

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