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1985—2011年中国不同类型云发生频率、持续时数及伴随降水概率

Cloud occurrence frequency, duration and accompanying rainfallprobability in China during 1985-2011

  • 摘要: 基于1985—2011 年逐时地面台站观测资料,分析了中国地区不同类型云的发生频率和持续时数的空间分布及其长期变化趋势和季节变化,并统计了不同类型云所伴随的降水概率及降水性质。结果表明,中国地区各类云的发生频率与持续时数的空间分布有较好的一致性。层积云是我国发生频率和持续时数最大的云类,主要分布于四川盆地,在四川盆地其发生频率超过50%,持续时数达20.1 h;雨层云持续时数仅次于层积云,在长江中下游以南其持续时数达12.8h;卷云、高积云和积云的发生频率及其持续时数的大值区分别位于北方、中部和南方。研究时段内,中国地区总云的发生频率以0.095%/a 的速度呈微弱的增加趋势。在云类典型分布区,层积云的发生频率和持续时数在冬半年较大,而积状云在夏季达到峰值;层状云的发生频率在上半年较大,而持续时数在冬半年较大。不同类型云产生降水的概率及对应的降水性质均有差异。层状云单独出现时伴随间歇性或连续性降水,其中雨层云单独出现时伴随降水的概率接近70%;积雨云的降水概率达50.89%,主要伴随阵性和不明类型降水;层积云主要伴随间歇性降水,降水概率约为17%。

     

    Abstract: Based on hourly surface station observations in China from 1985 to 2011, the spatial distribution, annual and seasonal variations of occurrence frequency and duration hour of various cloud types were analyzed. In addition, the rainfall probabilities and precipitation properties accompanying with eight cloud types were also calculated. The results indicate that the distribution patterns of cloud frequencies and duration hours are similar to each other among different regions in China. Both of the occurrence frequency and duration hour of stratocumulus are the largest among eight cloud types. It mainly occurs over Sichuan Basin, where the occurrence frequency of stratocumulus exceeds 50%, and its duration hour reaches 20.1 hours. Compared to stratocumulus, the duration hour of nimbostratus is slightly shorter, and it comes up to 12.8 hours in the south of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The centers of the maximum occurrence frequencies and duration hours of cirrus, altostratus and cumulus are located in northern, middle, and southern China, respectively. There is a weak increase of 0.095%/a for annual mean cloud occurrence frequency in China from 1985 to 2011. In the typical region of various cloud types, stratocumulus occurs more frequently and persists longer in cold seasons compared to warm seasons, while the reverse phase is found on cumulus clouds. The occurrence frequency of stratiform clouds is larger in the first half of the year, while their duration hour are longer in cold seasons. When different cloud types appear alone, their rainfall probabilities and precipitation properties are different. When nimbostratus, altostratus or stratus appear alone, they correspond to intermittent or continuous rainfall. The rainfall probability approaches 70% when nimbostratus occurs alone. The rainfall probability of cumulonimbus reaches 50.89%, and it mainly associates with showery or unknown precipitation. When stratocumulus appears alone, it corresponds to intermittent rainfall, with the rainfall probability about 17%.

     

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