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SWAN 产品在“2012·7”沙澧河流域特大暴雨过程中的应用

Application of SWAN products on“2012·7”extraordinary rainstorm in Shali river basin

  • 摘要: 利用灾害性天气短时临近预报业务系统(SWAN,Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System),对2012 年7 月4—5 日发生在河南沙澧河流域的大-特大暴雨过程进行SWAN 产品特征分析,总结SWAN 产品在此次过程短时临近预报、预警中的特征指标,结果表明:(1)1 h 降水量30 mm 以上站点对应的1 h 最大反射率因子97.4%在45 dBz 以上,回波顶高84.6%在11 km 以上,反射率因子对短时强降水预报的指示意义较强;(2)垂直积分液态含水量(VIL,Vertically Integrated LiquidWater)高值区与1 h 降水量10 mm 以上降水区有很好的对应关系;(3)定量降水估测(QPE,Quantitative Precipitation Estimation)对此次特大暴雨过程30 mm 以上1 h 降水量有较好的估测能力;(4)定量降水预报(QPF,Quantitative Precipitation Forecast)对此次过程1 h 降水量30 mm 以上的站点预报量级普遍偏小,平均QPF 预报误差偏小30 mm;(5)回波移动矢量(COTREC风场)指示着未来风暴移动的方向,且1 h 强降水中心与COTREC 风场辐合区有一定的对应关系。

     

    Abstract: Using the Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast system (SWAN), SWAN product characteristics are analyzed, and its early warning and forecasting indexes are summarized based on an extremely heavy rain event that took place in the Shali river basin, Henan province during 4-5, July 2012. The results are as follows. (1) The stations where precipitation exceeds 30 mm h-1 corresponds 97.4% of one-hour maximum reflectivity factor over 45 dBz, and 84.6% of echo top over 11 km. Reflectivity factor is a significant indicator for short-time strong rainfall forecasting. (2) The area of high vertical integrated liquid water content (VIL) and the area of precipitation over 10 mm h-1 have a great correlation. (3) Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) has a good skill to evaluate the precipitation over 30 mm h-1. (4) Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) often underestimates the precipitation over 30mm h-1, and the average QPF error is smaller than 30 mm. (5) The echo movement vector (COTREC wind field) can denote the storm future movement direction, and the one-hour heavy precipitation center and the echo movement vector convergence zone have some corresponding relationship.

     

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