Abstract:
The consistency of thunderstorm detection is analyzed between using lightning data from lightning location network and manual thunderstorm observations in the recent 4 years (from January 2010 to December 2013) in the Jianghuai region (111°-122°E, 28°-35°N) based on Threat Score (TS) and Hanssen-Kuiper Skill Score (KSS'). Results are as follows. The consistency between lightning data and manual thunderstorm observations in the south (<34°N) and east (>114°E) of Jianghuai region is better than that in the west (<114°E) and north (> 34°N) of Jianghuai region. The consistency is the best when choosing more than 2 lightning records in a region within 13-14 km from the station to represent station's thunderstorm occurrence. Under such condition, TS is up to 55%, with probability of detection of near 80% and false detection ratio of 32%-34%. For a better probability of detection given the enormous damage of lightning, if choosing more than 1 lightning record in a region within 12 km from the station to represent station's thunderstorm occurrence, the probability of detection is up to 83%, but the false detection ratio will increase, too. So, number of lightning records and radii from station can be chosen based on considerations of local lightning damage and cost to prevent that.