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江淮地区雷暴的闪电定位系统与人工观测的一致性分析

Analysis on consistency of thunderstorm data from lightening detection network and manual observation in the Jianghuai region

  • 摘要: 选取距离测站不同半径、不同闪电记录代表闪电定位系统对测站雷暴的监测,采用TS 评分和KSS'评分标准,对江淮地区(111°—122°E,28°—35°N)近4 年(2010 年1 月—2013 年12 月)闪电定位系统的雷暴监测与人工雷暴观测的一致性进行对比。结果表明: 江淮地区南部(34°N 以南)和东部(114°E 以东)两种资料的一致性好于其西部(114°E 以西)和北部 (34°N 以北)。在江淮地区选取半径13~14 km 范围内大于等于2 条闪电记录代表测站雷暴,二者的一致性最好,此时TS 技巧评分可达55%,命中率接近80%,空报率32%~34%。若考虑雷电造成的危害较大,追求更高的命中率,则选取半径 12 km 范围内大于等于1 条闪电记录代表测站雷暴,其命中率可达83%,但同时空报率也将提高。因此,可根据当地雷电灾害损失及其防范成本,选取适合当地的半径范围闪电定位系统的闪电记录代表测站开展雷电警报业务。

     

    Abstract: The consistency of thunderstorm detection is analyzed between using lightning data from lightning location network and manual thunderstorm observations in the recent 4 years (from January 2010 to December 2013) in the Jianghuai region (111°-122°E, 28°-35°N) based on Threat Score (TS) and Hanssen-Kuiper Skill Score (KSS'). Results are as follows. The consistency between lightning data and manual thunderstorm observations in the south (<34°N) and east (>114°E) of Jianghuai region is better than that in the west (<114°E) and north (> 34°N) of Jianghuai region. The consistency is the best when choosing more than 2 lightning records in a region within 13-14 km from the station to represent station's thunderstorm occurrence. Under such condition, TS is up to 55%, with probability of detection of near 80% and false detection ratio of 32%-34%. For a better probability of detection given the enormous damage of lightning, if choosing more than 1 lightning record in a region within 12 km from the station to represent station's thunderstorm occurrence, the probability of detection is up to 83%, but the false detection ratio will increase, too. So, number of lightning records and radii from station can be chosen based on considerations of local lightning damage and cost to prevent that.

     

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