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王胜, 田红, 宋阿伟, 谢五三, 卓玛, 杨丽桃. 2022: 1961—2020年安徽省区域性暴雨和干旱过程识别及演变特征. 暴雨灾害, 41(6): 671-678. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2022-088
引用本文: 王胜, 田红, 宋阿伟, 谢五三, 卓玛, 杨丽桃. 2022: 1961—2020年安徽省区域性暴雨和干旱过程识别及演变特征. 暴雨灾害, 41(6): 671-678. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2022-088
WANG Sheng, TIAN Hong, SONG Awei, XIE Wusan, ZHUO Ma, YANG Litao. 2022: Characteristics of identification and evolution of regional rainstorm and drought processes in Anhui Province during 1961-2020. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(6): 671-678. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2022-088
Citation: WANG Sheng, TIAN Hong, SONG Awei, XIE Wusan, ZHUO Ma, YANG Litao. 2022: Characteristics of identification and evolution of regional rainstorm and drought processes in Anhui Province during 1961-2020. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(6): 671-678. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2022-088

1961—2020年安徽省区域性暴雨和干旱过程识别及演变特征

Characteristics of identification and evolution of regional rainstorm and drought processes in Anhui Province during 1961-2020

  • 摘要: 客观识别区域性气候事件、定量评估其强度是开展精准监测及影响评估业务的基础。利用安徽省80个国家气象观测站1961—2020年逐日气象要素,基于区域性事件客观识别方法,识别出区域性暴雨和干旱过程。根据过程平均强度、持续时间和平均影响范围构建区域性过程综合强度评估模型,采用百分位数方法划分综合强度等级。近60 a安徽省共发生区域性暴雨过程775次,其中34次为特强区域性过程,约为2 a一遇;过程以持续1~2 d为主,平均暴雨站次为21.7个;近60 a区域性暴雨过程年次数显著增加、综合强度增强。全省共发生区域性干旱过程152次,其中9次为特强区域性过程,为6~7 a一遇;过程持续日数以15~60 d为主,平均日干旱站次为37个;区域干旱过程年次数线性变化趋势不明显,但年际波动大。基于气候监测业务技术总结和灾情检验表明,区域性过程识别方法及评估结果与旱涝灾情较为吻合,能较好地识别出区域性暴雨和干旱过程,并可从持续天数、平均强度、平均影响范围以及过程综合强度等多角度对旱涝过程进行精准监测评估。

     

    Abstract: Identifying objectively the processes of regional climate events and evaluating quantitatively their intensity are the basis for accurately monitoring and assessing the impacts of events. Using the data of daily mean precipitation and temperature from 80 national meteorological stations in Anhui Province during 1961-2020, the processes of regional extreme climate events are identified. According to the averaged intensity, duration and average influence range, the intensity evaluation model of regional process is constructed and the intensity grade is divided by the percentile method. The 775 regional rainstorm events are captured, and the annual average frequency is 12.9 times during 1961-2020, including 34 extremely strong regional events, about once in two years. The average duration of single regional rainstorm event is about 1-2 days, and the daily average spatial coverage of a single event covers 37 stations. The frequency and intensity of regional rainstorm event has increased significantly in nearly 60 years. In the past 60 years, there have been 152 regional drought events in Anhui Province, including 9 extremely strong regional events with a return period of about 6~7 years. The average duration of single regional drought event is about 15-60 days. The linear change trend of annual frequency of regional drought event is not obvious, but the inter-annual variation is large. Compared with the summary of climate monitoring services and historical cases, the assessment model is reasonable and consistent with historical extreme cases, having good correspondence with historical disaster data in time, range, and intensity. This index will provide a reference for the quantitative assessment of regional extreme climate events in other areas, and it is also an important technical support for timely monitoring and early warning for the extreme climate events.

     

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